Category Archives: market timing

📉 AIQ Expert System Clusters Bearish Signals as Q2 Closes

expert rating, expert system, market timing, Uncategorized

– But Confirmation Still Pending

As the second quarter of 2025 wrapped up, the AIQ Market Expert System recorded a notable cluster of bearish expert ratings. While prices pushed to new 21-day highs, the system flagged key divergences that often precede market reversals. Despite these warnings, a formal phase change — a decisive shift in the system’s directional rating — has not yet occurred.

🔍 Internals vs. Price: A Classic Divergence

Between June 26 and June 30, the market hit intraday and closing 21-day highs, suggesting upward momentum. However, several internal indicators — all monitored by the AIQ Market Expert System — painted a different picture:

  • Advance/Decline Oscillator readings were negative, showing a lack of participation behind the rally.
  • Up/Down Volume Oscillator also turned negative, signaling that declining stocks had heavier volume than advancing ones.
  • On June 26, even though closing prices hit a 21-day high, net advances declined, indicating a breadth-based non-confirmation.

This multi-day divergence between price action and internal strength is rare, and historically, it’s a high-confidence bearish signal.

🧠 Expert System Says: “Warning, Not Yet Confirmed”

While the AIQ Expert Ratings have issued several down alerts, the overall market phase has not yet flipped from up to down. In AIQ’s model, this is a cautionary period — often marking the last stage of a rally before momentum fades.

⚠️ Bottom Line

The AIQ Market Expert System is showing internal deterioration despite new highs in price — a clear warning signal. However, without a confirmed phase change, traders should remain alert but avoid overreacting.

This is exactly the kind of market behavior the AIQ TradingExpert Pro system is designed to detect — so traders can act on early warnings, not late confirmations.

Markets Rebound: April 29th’s Fibonacci 50% Retracement on QQQ, DJIA, and NASDAQ

indexes, market timing, trading strategy, Uncategorized

After the last few weeks’ market turbulence triggered by escalating tariff headlines, April 2 -28, 2025, delivered a textbook bounce—one that Fibonacci traders could spot a mile away. The QQQ, DJIA, and NASDAQ all staged strong retracements, each pulling back close to the 50% from their recent swing highs to the dramatic lows set by the tariff-driven selloff.

A Closer Look at the 50% Retracement

For those who track Fibonacci levels, the 50% retracement is more than just a number—it often signals a crucial moment of decision in market psychology. It’s the point where bulls and bears reassess their convictions. On April 29, all three major indices touched this level in near-perfect unison.

Let’s break it down:

  • QQQ (Invesco QQQ Trust): After plunging nearly 6% during the tariff turmoil, QQQ bounced back sharply. On 4/29, it retraced exactly 50% of the down move, landing right on the Fibonacci line drawn using AIQ TradingExpert Pro.
  • DJIA (Dow Jones Industrial Average): The Dow’s recovery was equally telling. It reclaimed 50% of the decline from its January high to the low posted on April 7. Resistance formed precisely at this level, adding credibility to the Fibonacci reading.
  • NASDAQ Composite: Tech stocks led the rally, and the NASDAQ showed an aggressive bounce. Like the QQQ, it retraced half the loss, with AIQ TradingExpert Pro’s Fibonacci tool providing a clean visual confirmation of market memory at play.

QQQ and DJIA at the 50% retracement

NASDAQ market at 50% retracement

Using AIQ TradingExpert Pro to Catch the Move

At AIQ, we emphasize practical tools that help traders act, not just analyze. The Fibonacci Retracement tool in AIQ TradingExpert Pro offers an intuitive interface for plotting retracement levels from any significant swing high to low—or vice versa. The 38.2%, 50%, and 61.8% levels are automatically calculated and displayed, making it easy to see where price might hesitate or reverse.

What made April 29 especially notable was how cleanly price respected the 50% level across indices. It wasn’t a vague “zone”—it was a laser line, and those who had it on their charts were better prepared to anticipate resistance and manage risk.

What’s Next?

While the 50% retracement is not a guaranteed reversal point, it is often where institutional players test the bounce’s resolve. If price holds below that level, the odds tilt toward a retest of the recent lows. A strong break above it? Then, we could see a move to the 61.8% level or higher.

With markets still on edge from macro headlines, now’s the time to stay sharp. Fibonacci tools like those in AIQ TradingExpert Pro give traders a clear visual framework, especially during volatile, headline-driven price swings.

Final Thoughts

If you’re not already using Fibonacci levels in your trading, April 29 was a perfect demonstration of their relevance. Whether you’re swing trading or managing a portfolio, these retracement zones offer insight into crowd behavior and price structure. It was noteworthy that the SP500 index had progressed further than 50% retracement (55%)

Stay tuned as we monitor whether this 50% level becomes a ceiling—or just another stepping stone on the road to recovery.

Trading The Channel

chart patterns, market timing, technical indicator, trading strategy, Uncategorized

AIQ code based on Perry Kaufman’s article in May 2025 issue of Stocks & Commodities, “Trading The Channel,” is shown here and also provided in a downloadable code file. This encodes the system that the author describes as a linear regression slope trading system, which goes long when the linear regression slope goes above the zero line and exits when the linear regression slope drops below the zero line.

! TRADING THE CHANNEL
! Author: Perry J Kaufman, TASC May 2025
! Coded by: Richard Denning, 3/15/2025

! Example of trading the linear regression slope:
Len is 20.
C is [close].
LRslope is Slope2(C,Len).
Signal is iff(LRslope > 0,1,-1).

Buy if Signal = 1 and valresult(Signal,1) = -1.
ExitLong if Signal = -1.

The imagee below shows an example of the linear regression slope line plotted on a daily chart of QQQ (Nasdaq-100 ETF).

AIQ Systems AI Market Ratings updated signals June 10, 2024

expert rating, indexes, market timing, Uncategorized

In this update, we’re going to discuss the most recent market timing signals from the Expert system within our Trading Expert Pro platform.

On your screen is a daily chart of the Dow Jones Industrial Average with a price phase indicator underneath, displaying Heiken Ashi-mode candles. The green bars indicate an uptrend, red bars show a downtrend, and the bars that are neither green nor red are based on a color study indicating a high market rating. To explain these market ratings: over 400 rules run through an inference engine—a decision tree process where 400 different indicator states are evaluated. When one rule fires, it triggers the evaluation of certain other rules. These decision pathways contribute to a high expert rating, either up or down, which can signal a change in market direction.

The expert rules are based on historical Dow Jones price action and the internals of the New York Stock Exchange, such as new highs, new lows, and advancing/declining issues, evaluated using numerous indicators. Every day, we generate an expert rating. Most ratings are neutral, meaning few or no rules fired. For instance, on June 4th of this year, the rating was neutral. Once the rules’ weighting reaches beyond 95 up or down, it’s a significant level. On the price chart, buy and sell points are indicated for ratings greater than 95. I’ve marked only the first in a batch of signals; subsequent signals reinforce the initial one. For example, a sell signal is marked by a yellow bar indicating a 96 down rating, signifying importance. Each day, an expert rating is shown on the chart. Scrolling forward, you’ll see the numbers change. White bars indicate a 95 or greater up signal, while yellow bars show a 95 or greater down signal.

The charts are annotated with buy and sell signals. When multiple buy signals occur, we focus on the first one, with subsequent signals reinforcing it. The same applies to sell signals. We haven’t updated these market timing signals in a while. Starting back in late February 2024, there was a buy signal on February 22nd, indicating a 95 rating for the upside. The rules contributing to this signal include the advanced decline oscillator turning positive, viewed as bullish in the market. The New York breadth data’s new high/low indicator reversing to the upside also supports this bullish signal. Price action moved up slightly before flattening out, followed by a sell signal. Examining the sell signal rules, volume accumulation percentages decreased, and the stochastic moved below the 80% line, indicating bearish conditions. Buy and sell signals appear consistently, with some leading to short-term gains.

Recently, on June 6th, there was another sell signal, reinforcing a previous one. Rules indicated negative shifts in the advanced decline line and up-down volume oscillator. These strong signals suggest a continued downtrend. The system, tested over 37 years, uses an inference engine decision tree process, providing standardized market analysis.

For a closer look, visit aiqsystems.com and try our service for a month for just $1, including end-of-day data. This system’s consistency over the years speaks for itself. https://aiqeducation.com/1-trial/