In this update, we’ll take a look at the current AI signals on the Dow Jones. For folks less familiar with our AI engine here’s a recap of what we do.
TradingExpert Pro uses two AI knowledge bases, one specifically designed to issue market timing signals and the other designed to give stock timing signals.
Each contains approximately 400 rules, but only a few “fire” on any given day. In the language of expert systems, those rules that are found to be valid on a particular day are described as having “fired”.
Rules can fire in opposite directions. When this happens, the bullish and bearish rules fight it out. It’s only when bullish rules dominate that the Expert Rating signal is bullish, or when bearish rules dominate that the Expert Rating signal is bearish.
The Expert Rating consists of two values.
The upside rating is the value on the left and the downside rating is on the right. Expert Ratings are based on a scale of 0 to 100. An Expert Rating of 95 to 100 is a strong signal that the Stock or market may change direction.
An Expert Rating below 90 is considered meaningless. A low rating means that there is not enough consistency in the rules that are fired to translate to a signal. The expert system has insufficient evidence to warrant a change from the last strong signal.
The Expert Desogn Studio file mentioned in this video is available to download here
Coming this fall there will be some new features coming to AIQ, one feature is the Heiken-Ashi chart. Heikin-Ashi, which means “average bar” in Japanese, is a charting technique used to help traders identify and analyze market trends. It is particularly useful for making candlestick charts more readable and for providing clearer signals regarding market trends. Here are some key points and takeaways about Heikin-Ashi charts:
Signal Interpretation:
Heikin-Ashi charts provide traders with specific signals to identify market trends. The five primary signals used in Heikin-Ashi charts are:
Doji Candle: This signal suggests market indecision.
Bullish Candle: Indicates a potential uptrend.
Bearish Candle: Suggests a potential downtrend.
Heikin-Ashi Bullish Continuation: Signals the continuation of an existing uptrend.
Heikin-Ashi Bearish Continuation: Signals the continuation of an existing downtrend.
Trend Identification:
Heikin-Ashi charts are particularly useful for identifying trends and trend reversals.
Traders can use these charts to stay in trades as long as a trend persists and exit when the trend pauses or reverses.
Calculation Method:
Heikin-Ashi candles are calculated differently from traditional candlesticks. They are based on the average price values of the open, high, low, and close prices for each period.
The formula for calculating Heikin-Ashi candles involves smoothing the price data to create a more consistent representation of price movement.
In summary, Heikin-Ashi charts are a valuable tool for traders to analyze trends and make trading decisions. They are especially effective for traders who prefer a smoother representation of price action and want clearer signals for trend identification. By understanding and correctly interpreting Heikin-Ashi charts, traders can improve their ability to predict market trends and make informed trading choices.
Here’s a comparison of the chart of NVDA. The first chart is a regular candlestick. The second chart is a Heiken-Ashi for NVDA for the same period. Note how the trends are far clearer in the Heiken-Ashi chart.
NVDA regular candlestick chart through 10/16/23
NVDA Heiken-Ashi chart, note how the trends are far clearer.
Heikin-Ashi charts exhibit several differences compared to traditional candlestick charts, as highlighted below:
Smoother Look:
Heikin-Ashi charts have a smoother appearance because they are derived from an average of price movements over time. This averaging process reduces the noise and volatility seen in regular candlestick charts.
Color Consistency:
In Heikin-Ashi charts, there is a tendency for the candles to remain predominantly red during downtrends and green during uptrends. This is because Heikin-Ashi candles take into account the average price movement, making them more consistent in color. In contrast, traditional candlesticks may alternate colors even when the price is dominantly moving in one direction.
Price Scale Variation:
In a regular candlestick chart, the current price displayed corresponds to the actual market price of the asset, and it usually matches the closing price of the candlestick (or the current price if the bar hasn’t closed yet).
With Heikin-Ashi, the current price on the candle may not necessarily match the real-time market trading price. This is because Heikin-Ashi uses an average calculation that can lag behind the actual market price.
To address this discrepancy, AIQ shows only the actual open high low, and close in the control panel of a chart for Heiken Ashi rather than the Heiken Ashi value.
These differences make Heikin-Ashi charts a valuable tool for traders who prefer a more visually consistent representation of price trends and are willing to accept a slight lag in price information in exchange for smoother and clearer signals. Traditional candlestick charts, on the other hand, provide more immediate and precise price information but can be noisier and less consistent in appearance. The choice between the two chart types depends on a trader’s preferences and trading strategy.
Recording of FREE 90-minute AIQ Zoom meet on September 7, 2023.
In this 90-minute session, Steve Hill, CEO of AIQ Systems looked at Market Timing based on Sector Rotation + David Wozniak of TFR will cover a Mid-Year Market Forecast
Please note due to recording issues the first 5 minutes of the session has some external noise.
An hour-long session with Steve Hill, CEO of AIQ Systems. It’s one of the longest-running AI-based systems in the world. Like any AI it isn’t perfect. In this session, Steve will cover leveraging these ratings for effective trading decisions.
As every investor knows, in stock market trading, timing is everything. AIQ is the world leader in producing artificial intelligence-based expert systems for stock market timing for use on personal computers.
Briefly, an expert system is a decision-making system that contains the knowledge of experts on a particular subject, and uses this knowledge to make decisions and solve problems. To create an expert system, a knowledge engineer researches experts in a particular field and distills their knowledge and insight into a series of rules. By following the rules, the expert system can analyze a problem and solve it.
AIQ TradingExpert Pro is programmed with the knowledge and insight of respected technical analysts, experts who have developed technical analysis indicators and systems for the last 50 years. The up/down timing signals issued by TradingExpert Pro are based on this knowledge. Since TradingExpert Pro’s timing signals are generated on a scientific basis, free of bias or emotion, you get a disciplined, objective approach to stock market timing.
The timing signals produced by the AIQ expert system are in the form of Expert Ratings Behind each Expert Rating is a set of rules that combine the sound principles of technical analysis with the experience of market professionals. Since no single technical indicator works all the time, using indicators in combination increases their reliability. For example, a rule is developed that combines the readings of two or more indicators. This rule is then more reliable than the reading of a single indicator.
Within TradingExpert Pro are two knowledge bases, one specifically designed to issue market timing signals and the other designed to issue stock timing signals. Each TradingExpert Pro knowledge base contains approximately 400 rules, but only a few “fire” on any given day. In the language of expert systems, those rules that are found to be valid on a particular day are described as having “fired”.
Rules can fire in opposite directions. When this happens, the bullish and bearish rules fight it out. It’s only when bullish rules dominate that the Expert Rating signal is bullish, or when bearish rules dominate that the Expert Rating signal is bearish.
The importable AIQ EDS file based on Vitali Apirine’s article in the June issue of Stocks & Commodities, “The Stochastic Distance Oscillator,” can be obtained on request via email to info@TradersEdgeSystems.com.
Vitali’s new variation on the classic stochastic oscillator, is based on price maxima and minima over a range of days. It indicates overbought and oversold levels and helps to identify bull and bear trend changes.
Code for the author’s indicator is set up in the AIQ EDS code file. The code is also shown below. Figure 11 shows a chart of the NASDAQ 100 index (NDX) with the SDO[200,12,3] indicator (green jagged line).
!The Stochastic Distance Oscillator
!Author: Vitali Apirine, TASC June 2023
!Coded by: Richard Denning, 4/15/2023
LBPeriod is 200.
Period is 12.
Pds is 3.
C is [close].
Dist is abs(C-valresult(C,period)).
D is (Dist - lowresult(Dist,LBPeriod))/
(highresult(Dist,LBPeriod)-lowresult(Dist,LBPeriod)).
DD is iff(C>valresult(C,Period),D,iff(C<valresult(C,Period),-D,0)).
SDO is expavg(DD,Pds)*100.
FIGURE 11: AIQ. Here, the stochastic distance oscillator (SDO) indicator is shown on a chart of the NASDAQ 100 index (NDX). The SDO[200,12,3] indicator is the green jagged line.
AIQ now offers customized Technical Analysis and Stock Trading Mentoring programs
If you’re looking to take your stock trading skills to new heights, gain a competitive edge, and maximize your profits, then you’ve come to the right place, or if you want a specific topic, we’re here to help you.
Our bespoke program is designed to provide you with the knowledge, tools, and support you need to take your stock trading to the next level.
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If you missed this AIQ Zoom event, don’t worry, the recording is now available from the link at the end of this post. (FYI it expires on May 25th.
In this 60-minute session, Steve Hill, CEO of AIQ Systems evaluated 2 recent Traders Tips from Stocks & Commodities Magazine.
Scott Cong proposes a new adaptive moving average (AMA). It adjusts its parameters automatically according to the volatility of the market, tracking price closely in trending movement, and staying flat in congestion areas. The new AMA is well-suited for swing trading.
John Ehlers reduces noise in the data by using an average of the open and close instead of using only the closing price.
Steve also created the two EDS files for these indicators. Special thanks to Richard Denning for programming these.
These files should be saved to your/wintes32/EDS strategies folder
The importable AIQ EDS file based on Scott Cong’s article in the May 2023 issue of Stocks & Commodities magazine, “An Adaptive Moving Average For Swing Trading,” can be obtained on request via rdencpa@gmail.com.
In this article, Scott proposes a new adaptive moving average (AMA). It adjusts its parameters automatically according to the volatility of market, tracking price closely in trending movement, and staying flat in congestion areas. The new AMA is well-suited for swing trading.
The code is also available below.
Code for the author’s indicator as shown below is set up in the downloadable AIQ EDS code file.
!ADAPTIVE MOVING AVERAGE FOR SWING TRADING
!Author: Scott Cong, TASC May 2023
!Coded by: Richard Denning, 03/14/2023
!INPUTS:
Len is 20.
!CODING ABREVIATIONS:
H is [high].
L is [low].
C is [close].
C1 is val([close],1).
TR is Max(H-L,max(abs(C1-L),abs(C1-H))).
Effort is sum(TR,Len).
Result is highresult(H,Len) – lowresult(L,Len).
alpha is Result / Effort.
beta is 1 – alpha.
DaysInto is ReportDate() – RuleDate(). Stop if DaysInto > Len*2. stopAMA is iff(stop,C, AMA). AMA is alpha * [close] + beta * valresult( stopAMA, 1). ESA is expavg(C,Len).
The figure below shows a chart of Broadcom (AVGO) along with the AMA[20] indicator (the red jagged line) and an exponential moving average indicator [20] (the green smooth line).
ETF text with businessman on dark vintage background
If you missed this AIQ Zoom event, don’t worry, the recording is now available from the link at the end of this post. (FYI it expires on April 13th).
In this 90-minute session, Steve Hill, CEO of AIQ Systems built a list of Direxion ETFs to trade everything and ran it through analytical tools. In the second half David Wozniak, CMT covered supply and demand by Incorporating Point & Figure Charts.
Steve also created data files and list files for the ETFS. These are zipped and available below
ETF data files are here – unzip to your /wintes32/tdata folder. Then go to Data Manager, Utilities, Rebuild Master Ticker List.
ETF List files are here – unzip these files to your /wintes32 folder.
The importable AIQ EDS file based on John Ehlers’ article in the March 2023 issue of Stocks & Commodities, “Every Little Bit Helps,” can be obtained on request via rdencpa@gmail.com. John notes ‘It’s simple but makes a noticeable improvement: You can reduce noise in the data by using an average of the open and close instead of using only the closing price.’ The code is also available below.
!Every Little Bit Helps !Author: John F. Ehlers, TASC Mar 2023 !Coded by: Richard Denning, 1/12/2023
!Data Sampling Test !(c) John Ehlers 2022
!INPUTS: W1 is 14. !Wilder RSI length W2 is 14. !Ehlers RSI length
!RSI Wilder code: U is [close]-val([close],1). D is val([close],1)-[close]. L1 is 2 * W1 – 1. AvgU is ExpAvg(iff(U>0,U,0),L1). AvgD is ExpAvg(iff(D>=0,D,0),L1). RSIwilder is 100-(100/(1+(AvgU/AvgD))).
!Ehlers RSI code: OCavg is ([open] + [close])/2. Uoc is OCavg-valresult(OCavg,1). Doc is valresult(OCavg,1)-OCavg. L2 is 2 * W2 – 1. AvgU2 is ExpAvg(iff(Uoc>0,Uoc,0),L2). AvgD2 is ExpAvg(iff(Doc>=0,Doc,0),L2). RSIoc is 100-(100/(1+(AvgU2/AvgD2))).
!CTest is RSIwilder. !OCTest is RSIoc.
BuyRSIwilder if RSIwilder < 20 and valrule(RSIwilder >= 20,1). ExitRSIwilder if RSIwilder > 80 or {Position days}>=20.
BuyRSIoc if RSIoc < 20 and valrule(RSIoc >= 20,1). ExitRSIoc if RSIoc > 80 or {Position days}>=20.
Code for the author’s indicators are set up in the AIQ EDS code file. Figure 7 shows the EDS module backtest results using the RSI original indicator. Figure 8 shows the EDS module backtest results using the modified version of the RSI indicator over a 10-year period using NASDAQ 100 stocks. The comparison suggests that some of the metrics improve using the modified version and a few are worse.
The system rules are:
Buy when the RSI crosses down below 20
Sell when the RSI crosses above 80 or after 20 trading days
FIGURE 7: AIQ. This shows example backtest results for classic RSI trading system rules, based on closing data, over a 10-year period using NASDAQ 100 stocks. FIGURE 8: AIQ. This shows example backtest results for the RSI trading system rules, this time based on data that averages the open and close instead of using just the closing price data, over a 10-year period using NASDAQ 100 stocks.
This may save to a download folder on your system. We suggest you move it to the path C:/wintes32/EDS strategies/Chart Pattern Strategies folder.
To run this strategy automatically after your nightly download of data
– Open Data Retrieval, and select the EDS Post Processing tab. – Select add, and in the Open, Look in C:/wintes32/EDS strategies/Chart Pattern Strategies folder for db3.EDS – Select Open and the strategy will run every night for you.
In her article in the December 2022 issue of Stocks and Commodities, “Short-Term Continuation And Reversal Signals,” Barbara Star describes modifications to the classic directional movement indicator (DMI) and commodity channel index (CCI) that can aid in more easily identifying price reversals and continuations in a trend. Traditionally, the DMI is comprised of two lines: a positive line (+DI) and negative line (−DI).
In her article, Star creates a DMI oscillator by subtracting −DI from +DI. Historically, the DMI uses a default length of 14. In the article, this has been shortened to 10. The CCI has also been adjusted in the article to use a length of 13 instead of the usual 14 or 20. The oscillator is setup using an AIQ Color Study
The importable AIQ EDS file can be obtained on request via email to info@TradersEdgeSystems.com. The code is also shown here:
! Short-Term Continuation And Reversal Signals ! Author: Barbara Star, TASC Dec 2022 ! Coded by: Richard Denning, 10/21/2022 C is [close]. H is [high]. L is [low]. H1 is valresult(H,1). H2 is valresult(H,2). L1 is valresult(L,1). L2 is valresult(L,2). GreenDMI if [DirMov] > 0. RedDMI if [DirMov] < 0. StartOfDownTrend if C < simpleavg(C,18) and [DirMov] < 0 and H < H1 and H1 > H2. StartOfUpTrend if C >= simpleavg(C,18) and [DirMov] >= 0 and L > L1 and L1 < L2. GreenTrend if C >= simpleavg(C,18) and [DirMov] >= 0. RedTrend if C < simpleavg(C,18) and [DirMov] < 0.
Code for the author’s color study is set up in the AIQ EDS code file. Figure 7 shows the color studies set up in the charts module. Figure 8 shows the color studies on a chart of Apple, Inc. (AAPL). The black bars are potential entry points in the downtrend.
FIGURE 7: AIQ. The color bar setup in the charts module is demonstrated.
FIGURE 8: AIQ. This shows an example of the color studies applied to a chart of Apple, Inc. (AAPL) with a DMI histogram and an 18-bar simple moving average.
It’s been a challenging market this year, and making trading decisions has never been easy. Which direction the market is likely to move plays a huge part in stock trading decisions.
The Expert Rating system on the market with its combination of 400 rules on the Dow 30 index and the NYSE internals has always provided us an early indication of direction changes.
No system is infallible, and when the Expert System on the market was created, we noticed that ratings of 95 or higher to the upside or downside (maximum rating is 100 btw) were significant. We also noticed a marked improvement in the ratings accuracy if we used a confirmation technique with a a momentum indicator.
After much research we discovered that the Phase Indicator (a version of an MACD histogram) was the most accurate tool to confirm high ratings.
Here’s how we use Phase to confirm a high Expert Rating.
When a rating of 95 up or 95 down is triggered on the market, we look for the Phase histogram to change direction. The change in direction must be to the direction of the rating. This change does not have to happen on the day of the rating, but it must occur within 2 to 3 days either side of the rating day.
If the Phase does not change direction, the rating is considered not confirmed.
This short video analysis of the last 4 ratings shows this process in action.
The importable AIQ EDS file based on Vitali Apirine’s article in the February 2022 issue of Stocks & Commodities titled “Relative Strength Volume-Adjusted Exponential Moving Average” can be obtained on request via email to info@TradersEdgeSystems.com.
Synopsis: You can use calculations of the relative strength of price, volume, and volatility to filter price movement and help define turning points. In part 2, we explore the relative strength volume-adjusted exponential moving average.
The code is also available here:
! Relative Strength Volume Adjusted Exponential Moving Average ! Author: Vitali Apirine, TASC October 2022 ! Coded by: Richard Denning, 8/16/2022 Periods is 40. Pds is 40. Mltp is 10. C is [close]. v IS [volume]. Mltp1 is 2/(Periods+1). Vup is iff(C>valresult(C,1),V,0). Vdwn is iff(CMltp. Rate is Mltp1(1+RS1). HD if hasdatafor(Periods2+1) > Periods2. DaysInto is ReportDate() - RuleDate(). Stop if DaysInto > 50. stopesa is iff(stop,C,RS_VA_EMA). !myesa is alpha * [close] + beta * valresult( stopesa, 1 ). RS_VA_EMA is iff(HD,valresult(stopesa,1)+Rate(C-valresult(stopesa,1)),C). !If(Cum(1)=Periods2,C,PREV+Rate*(C-PREV)). ListValues if 1. EMAp is expavg(C,Periods).
Code for the author’s indicator is set up in the AIQ EDS code file. Figure 10 shows a comparison of the EMA(40) versus the RS_VA_EMA on a chart of SPY during three months of 2022.
FIGURE 10: AIQ. Here, the exponential moving average of close over 40 bars (smooth blue line) is compared to the RS_VA_EMA(40,40,10) (jagged red line) on SPY.
The AIQ TradingExpert Pro Market Timing signals are not a perfect system. If they were no doubt the founders of AIQ would have kept it secret and traded the signals themselves.
The signals that give us early waring of a change in direction of the market are proprietary. The 400 rules that are used by the Artificial Intelligence inference engine to determine change of market direction use many of the widely known technical tools.
The rating calculation and the indicators contributing to the ratings have not been changed for many years. A decision was made some years ago to avoid constantly moving the goalposts as the constant optimizing or back fitting erodes the validity of the system.
High ratings to the upside or downside of notice have to be 95 or greater (the maximum is 100). the ratings are considered confirmed when the Phase indicator that is outside of the AI system, changes in the direction of the high rating.
So ratings have fired in the last few months how do we confirm them?
We look for the Phase indicator ( a derivative of MACD) to change in the direction of the signal. This needs to occur within a 3 day window before or after the rating.
The last 2 market timing signals illustrate this nicely.
August 18, 2022 97-2 up signal on the market
The up signal occurred during a a 3 day down period on the uptrend, however the Phase indicator did not change direction (it would need to turn up after going down) within the window for confirmation. This signal is therefore unconfirmed by Phase.
August 22, 2022 down signal on the market
The down signal occurred on 8-22-22. 100 down is the strongest signal the market timing generates. In this case the Phase turned down after a prolonged upward move, on the day before the signal. This is considered a confirmed down signal on the market.
The rules that contributed to 0-100 down on the market
The 100 down signal is the strongest signal the AI system generates. Here are the major technical events that contribute to this rating.
Trend Status has changed to a strong down trend. This indicates that a downward trend has started that may continue in this direction. This is a moderate bearish signal.
The 21 day stochastic has declined below the 80% line and the price phase indicator is decreasing. In this strongly downtrending market this is an indication that the downtrend will continue.
Volume accumulation percentage is decreasing and the 21 day stochastic has moved below the 80% line. In this strongly down market, this is taken as a very strong bearish signal that could be followed by a downward price movement.
The exponentially smoothed advance/decline line has turned negative when the up/down volume oscillator and the advance/decline oscillator are already negative. In this market, this is viewed as a bearish signal that could precede a downward price movement.
The up/down volume oscillator has turned negative when the exponentially smoothed advance/decline line and the advance/decline oscillator are already negative. In this market, this is viewed as a bearish signal that could precede a downward price movement.
The new high/new low indicator has reversed to the downside. This is a reliable bearish signal that is often followed by an downward price movement. In this market a continued strong downtrend can be expected.
The importable AIQ EDS file based on Markos Katsanos’ article in the August 2022 issue of Stocks & Commodities magazine, “Trading The Fear Index” and the “CUM1.csv” file can be obtained on request via email to info@TradersEdgeSystems.com. Code for the author’s system is set up in the AIQ code file.
Synopsis: Here is a long-short strategy to capitalize on stock market volatility using volatility-based exchange-traded funds (ETFs or ETNs)…
! VIX ETF SYSTEM ! This should be applied only to long VIX ETF. ! VIX ETF DAILY LONG-SHORT TRADING SYSTEM ! COPYRIGHT MARKOS KATSANOS 2022 ! To be applied on a daily chart of long VIX ETFs: ! VXX,VIXY,UVXY,VIXM,VXZ,SVOL ! INPUTS: C is [close]. H is [high]. L is [low]. VIXUPMAX is 50. ! VIX UP% MAX VBARS is 6. ! Number of bars to calculate VIXUP,VIXDN & RC STBARSL is 25. ! Number of bars to calculate slow stochastic STBARSS is 10. ! Number of bars to calculate fast stochastic ! COMPARISON INDEX VIXC is TickerUDF("VIX",C). VIXH is TickerUDF("VIX",H). VIXL is TickerUDF("VIX",L). SPYC is TickerUDF("SPY",C). SPYH is TickerUDF("SPY",H). SPYL is TickerUDF("SPY",L). ! STOCHASTIC STOCHVS is (VIXC-lowresult(VIXL,STBARSS))/(highresult(VIXH, STBARSS)-lowresult(VIXL, STBARSS)+0.0001)100. STVIXS is simpleavg(STOCHVS,3). STOCHSS is (SPYC-lowresult(SPYL,STBARSS))/(highresult(SPYH,STBARSS)-lowresult(SPYL,STBARSS)+0.0001)100. STSPYS is simpleavg(STOCHSS,3). STOCHVL is (VIXC-lowresult(VIXL,STBARSL))/(highresult(VIXH,STBARSL)-lowresult(VIXL,STBARSL)+0.0001)100. STVIXL is simpleavg(STOCHVL,3). STOCHSL is (SPYC-lowresult(SPYL,STBARSL))/(highresult(SPYH,STBARSL)-lowresult(SPYL,STBARSL)+0.0001)100. STSPYL is simpleavg(STOCHSL,3). !VIX VIXDN is (VIXC/valresult(highresult(VIXC,VBARS),1)-1)100. VIXUP is (VIXH/valresult(lowresult(VIXL,VBARS),1)-1)100. ! CORRELATION TREND PeriodToTest is VBARS-1. !CUM1 is a custom ticker from DTU import of a CSV file** !CUM1 file is required for this system to work ! PEARSON CORRELATION ValIndex is TickerUDF("VIX", [close]). ValTkr is TickerUDF("CUM1", [close]). SumXSquared is Sum(Power(ValIndex,2), PeriodToTest). SumX is Sum(ValIndex, PeriodToTest). SumYSquared is Sum(Power(ValTkr,2), PeriodToTest). SumY is Sum(ValTkr, PeriodToTest). SumXY is Sum(ValTkr*ValIndex, PeriodToTest). SP is SumXY - ( (SumX * SumY) / PeriodToTest ). SSx is SumXSquared - ( (SumX * SumX) / PeriodToTest ). SSy is SumYSquared - ( (SumY * SumY) / PeriodToTest ). RC is SP/SQRT(SSx*SSy). !LONG BR1 if HasDataFor(STBARSL+10)>STBARSL+3. BR2 if STVIXL>STSPYL . BR3 if STVIXS>STSPYS. BR4 if STVIXS>valresult(STVIXS,1). BR5 if VIXUP>VIXUPMAX. BR6 if RC>0.8. BR7 if RC>valresult(RC,1). BUY if BR1 and BR2 and BR3 and BR4 and BR5 and BR6 and BR7. SR1 is STSPYS>STVIXS. SR2 is STVIXS<valresult(STVIXS,1). SELL if SR1 or SR2. !SHORT SS1 if HasDataFor(STBARSS+10)>STBARSS+3. SS2 if VIXC<= lowresult(VIXC,3). SS3 if VIXUP15. SS6 if STSPYS>STVIXS. SS7 if STSPYS>valresult(STSPYS,1). SHORT if SS1 and SS2 and SS3 and SS4 and SS5 and SS6 and SS7. CR1 if VIXUP>VIXUPMAX. CR2 if STVIXS>valresult(STVIXS,1). CR3 if RC>0.8. COVER if CR1 and CR2 and CR3. TEST if 1=1.
Figure 6 shows the CUM1.csv file that must be created in Excel and then imported using the DTU utility to a new index ticker called “CUM1.” The file increments one unit, like an index, for each trading day starting on 10/1/2003 and continues to the current date. This file would have to be updated manually via the data manager function.
FIGURE 6: AIQ SYSTEMS. This shows the portion of the CUM1.csv file that must be created in Excel.
Figure 7 shows a summary EDS backtest of the system using the VXX and VXZ from 6/21/2018 to 6/21/2022.
FIGURE 7: AIQ SYSTEMS. This shows a summary EDS backtest of the system using the VXX and VXZ from 6/21/2018 to 6/21/2022.
High ER Up and ER Down signals as a color study on DJI
Hour-long recording of session with Steve Hill, CEO of AIQ Systems. We explored some indicator trading strategies and undertook some testing of effectiveness. Wenalso combined them together into one strategy, prior to adding them as a Color Study.
July 20, 2022 05:00 PM Eastern Time (US and Canada)
Topic: Indicator Trading Strategies and Custom Studies Hour-long session with Steve Hill, CEO of AIQ Systems. We’ll explore some indicator trading strategies and we’ll undertake some testing of effectiveness. We’ll also combine them together into one strategy, prior to adding them as a Color Study.
I hope all you are having a nice summer, and you are healthy and happy. At this time, there are so many global disruptions that are affecting markets simultaneously. If you look at history, daily markets are affected by short-term disruptions. Which is why being a Financial Advisor for as long as I have and watching the many disruptions that cause short-term spikes and dips, you tend to try to keep clients calm and remind them that “this too shall pass” and to stay the course on their long-term objectives.
My goal is to reassure everyone that the market over the LONG-TERM has done very well, but some years including this current year markets can go down. According to CNBC, 2022 has had the worst stock market year since 1970 and the worst Government Bond market since the 1860s. Since 1970 the market according to stockcharts.com has averaged over 10.46% per year, but in some years the markets drop, sometimes stocks and bonds drop, but it is normal. I can only advise you with the almost 42 years of being a financial advisor, out of fear people tend to panic and sell at bottoms and buy at the top.
How do financially independent people make money in the markets? They buy investments when no one else wants them, they are sticking to their long-term goals. When things are relatively cheap, they start accumulating good long-term investments, only.
So many stocks are down 40-80%, but if the companies are good and strong then they might a good investment when things turn around and they should be in my opinion over the next year. The main reason I write the Bartometer, is to keep you abreast of how best to navigate through market trends.
2021 Recap:
Most of 2021, last year I was saying do not buy, the markets are too overvalued and take some money off the table.
Current Market Trends:
Right now, I am saying to nibble and dollar cost average over the next 6 months to a year as I think you will be getting much better prices. If you are putting money in your 401(k) you may want to double up your investments for a while. This decline will pass in my opinion. You make money in the Bull Markets by Buying in the Bear Markets unless you are a trader.
The markets are still down 18-32% or more for the year and even Energy stocks were the biggest losers over the last month dropping about 18% over the last 30 days. Most of you have seen a decline in gas prices recently. Inflationary pressures are starting to subside somewhat. This is good news.
Last month on the Bartometer you all have I said the S&P 500 could drop to the 3500 to 3650 level and that could be a short term low or a good place to buy a little and the S&P 500 went to 3620 and rebounded, currently:
• S&P 500 is over 3900 again and the Federal Reserve may raise interest rates one or 2 more times based on the data that is coming out.
• Job numbers just came out and they were better than expected so rates will probably go higher but there is talk now that the economy may not go into a hard recession but a soft landing.
If that is true, then the markets may not go as low as the Doomsday Sayers” of 2500 on the S&P 500. There are points where investors are looking for a turnaround in the market. So, if we are in a soft-landing scenario, and that is a big IF, we MAY have another 10+ percent down in the market to the 3200 to 3500 area but only if earnings are going to fall or are revised down significantly. For most of you the upside could be 4200 this year and from this point it could go down to 3200 to 3500 if earnings drop. But I am hopeful that over the next year or so the markets are up, and we get inflation under control and earnings turnaround. I think any dip of the S&P 500 to the 3200 to the 3500 could be major buying opportunity. I can’t guarantee it as it depends on data. Short term I see 3200 to 3500 as a possible short term low and 4200 on the upside if earnings are not revised down and rates stop going up.
Next year I see the market going higher because I see earnings rebounding and interest rates subsiding. THINK LONG TERM.
Some of the INDEXES of the markets both equities and interest rates are below. The source is Morningstar.com up until July 08, 2022. These are passive indexes.
Market Outlook
Stocks moved higher this week with the major indexes up 2% to 5%. The S&P500 was up 2%, while the Nasdaq gained 5%. Economic news was mixed, as were business surveys, which gave conflicting signals on the strength of the economy. Positively, longer-term interest rates have remained relatively stable and inflationary expectations as measured with the 10-year T-Note continued to trend down. They were recently 2.3%, down from 2¾% a month ago. Another positive, the S&P500 and the Nasdaq moved above two key areas of resistance (the 10- and 21-day averages). A negative, the stock market gains all came on very light trading volume. In a healthy stock market, upward moves occur on strong volume.
My Epoch Times article on shortages highlights the government’s role in preventing businesses from getting goods to consumers. Another such government move comes from a California law directed against independent truckers and other independent contractors. If enforced, tens of thousands of independent truckers will not be able to operate in CA. This increases the potential for damage to CA and for more shortages throughout the country damaging the supply chain.
While the rally in stock prices provides some relief, stocks are 26% overvalued. With the Fed promising to sell securities and raise interest rates, the risks to owning stocks remains extremely high.
A Look Back Today’s job report shows strong gains for June. Private payroll jobs increased 381,000, a 3.6% annual rate. Total weekly hours worked and average weekly earnings increased at annual rates of 4% and 6%. Unemployment remained 3.6%.
This is a reduction of his stock allocation.
Dr Robert Genetski, American Strategic Advisors and LPL Financial are not affiliated. The opinions expressed in this material do necessarily reflect the views of LPL Financial.
SUPPORT AND RESISTANCE LEVELS ON THE S&P 500
RESISTANCE 3920 TO 3960 (RIGHT WHERE WE CLOSED FRIDAY) then 4178,4224 and 4322
SUPPORT 3645, 3506 the 50% Fibonacci Retracement, 3195 the 61.8% Fibonacci Retracement. These are areas not exact numbers
Bottom Line
• The market has had one of the worst years in 50 years in a long time dropping 18-50% The cause?? Overvaluation, Higher Interest rates, INFLATION, Recessionary pressures, Covid and the Russian War and China.
• Interest rates are rising and could rise 1 to 3 more times. At that time if interest rates peak because inflation is peaking then stocks and regular bonds may be a worthwhile investment.
• In addition, stocks with pricing power and with good consistent earnings can do better than aggressive companies that have potential but no earnings.
• Commodities have sold off somewhat leading me to believe that the Federal Reserve may not raise interest rates substantially from here.
• The market is at an inflection point where normally it would top as it is at resistance right now and will either push through short term resistance or sell off here.
I am still long term bullish on equities, but the short term could get very volatile over the next 2 to 4 months. The upside might be 4178 to 4400 on the S&P 500, but I would consider selling some if it goes there over the next 2 months but the downside could be the 3650 level or lower possibly to the 3500 level if we go into a soft recession then the 3180 to 3200 is possible if the recession is steeper. At that point the markets could be a great buying opportunity. This is predicated on the actions of the Federal Reserve. I will continue to do my analysis and inform you when a bottom looks imminent.
The Best to all of you, Joe Bartosiewicz, CFP® LPL Investment Advisor Representative Contact information: Joe Bartosiewicz, CFP® Partner Wealth Manager American Strategic Advisors 263 Tresser Blvd 1st Floor Stamford CT 06901 860-940-7020
SECURITIES AND ADVISORY SERVICES OFFERED THROUGH LPL Financial, a registered investment advisor, MEMBER FINRA/SIPC.
Charts provided by AIQ Systems
Disclaimer: The views expressed are not necessarily the view of LPL Financial or American Strategic Advisors, Inc. and should not be interpreted directly or indirectly as an offer to buy or sell any securities mentioned herein. Past performance cannot guarantee future results. Investing involves risk including the potential loss of principal. No investment strategy can guarantee a profit or protect against loss in periods of declining values. Please note that individual situations can vary. Therefore, the information presented in this letter should only be relied upon when coordinated with individual professional advice. *There is no guarantee that a diversified portfolio will outperform a non-diversified portfolio in any given market environment. No investment strategy, such as asset allocation, can guarantee a profit or protect against loss in periods of declining values.
It is our goal to help investors by identifying changing market conditions. However, investors should be aware that no investment advisor can accurately predict all the changes that may occur in the market.
The price of commodities is subject to substantial price fluctuations of short periods of time and may be affected by unpredictable international monetary and political policies. The market for commodities is widely unregulated and concentrated investing may lead to Sector investing may involve a greater degree of risk than investments with broader diversification.
The opinions voiced in this material are for general information only and are not intended to provide specific advice or recommendations for any individual. All performance referenced is historical and there is no guarantee of future results. All indices are unmanaged and may not be invested into directly. Stock investments include risks, including fluctuations in market price and loss of principal. No strategy assures success or protects against loss. Because of their narrow focus, sector investing includes risk subject to greater volatility than investing more broadly across multiple sectors.
The importable AIQ EDS file based on Markos Katsanos’ article in April 2022 issue of Stocks and Commodities magazine, “Stock Market Seasonality,” can be obtained on request via email to info@TradersEdgeSystems.com. The code is also available below.
Synopsis:
Should you sell in May, or later in the summer, or never? Is October the best reentry month? Which are the best and worst months for the stock market? And are there statistically significant seasonal patterns in the equity markets? Can we improve on a seasonal system using other technical conditions?
Code for the author’s system is set up in the AIQ code file. Figure 9 shows a summary EDS backtest of the system using the SPY ETF from 1/1/2000 to 2/17/2022.
FIGURE 9: AIQ. This shows the summary EDS backtest of the system using the SPY ETF from 1/1/2000 to 2/17/2022.
!Stock Market Seasonality
!Author: Markos Katsanos, TASC April 2022
!Coded by: Richard Denning, 2/10/2022
C is [close].
C1 is valresult(C,1).
H is [high].
L is [low].
V is [volume].
Avg is (H+L+C)/3.
VIXc is TickerUDF(“VIX”,C).
VIXc1 is valresult(VIXc,1).
VIXllv is lowresult(VIXc,25).
VIXllv1 is valresult(VIXllv,1).
VIXhhv is highresult(VIXc,25).
VIXhhv1 is valresult(VIXhhv,1).
VIXDN is (VIXc1 / VIXhhv1)100.
VIXUP is (VIXc1 / VIXllv1)100.
TR is max(max(C1-L,H-C1),H-L).
ATR is expavg(TR,152-1).
ATR1 is valresult(ATR,1).
ATRllv is highresult(ATR,25).
ATRllv1 is valresult(ATRllv,1).
ATRhhv is highresult(ATR,25).
ATRhhv1 is valresult(ATRhhv,1).
ATRDN is (ATR1 / ATRhhv1)100.
ATRUP is (ATR1 / ATRllv1)*100.
!VFI
Period is 130.
Coef is 0.2.
VCoef is 2.5.
inter is ln( Avg ) – ln( valresult( Avg, 1) ).
Vinter is Sqrt(variance(inter, 30 )).
Cutoff is Coef * Vinter * C.
Vave is valresult( simpleavg( V, Period ), 1 ).
Vmax is Vave * Vcoef.
VC is Min( V, Vmax ).
MF is Avg – valresult( Avg, 1 ).
VCP is iff(MF > Cutoff, VC, iff(MF < -Cutoff, -VC, 0 )).
VFI1 is Sum( VCP, Period ) / Vave.
VFI is expavg( VFI1, 3 ).
SELLMONTH is 8.
VIXUPMAX is 60.
CRIT is -20. !VFI SELL
K is 1.5. !ATR/VIX RATIO
VOLCONDITION is (VIXUPCRIT.
BUY if (Month()>=10 OR Month()2*VIXUPMAX. !VOLATILITY EXIT
SELLMF if CRIT > VFI AND valrule(CRIT < VFI,1) AND simpleavg(VFI,10)<valresult(simpleavg(VFI,10),1).
Sell if SELLSEASONAL OR valrule(SELLVOLATILITY,1) OR valrule(SELLMF,1).
