The Dow Jones Industrial Average just changed — Alphabet replaced Verizon on June 29. The Transportation Average changed too — FedEx Freight replaced American Airlines on June 1.

And while the “Industrials” sit at record highs, the Transports are roughly 12% off their peak, hammered by oil back above $100 a barrel.

Charles Dow Had a Name for This

Non-confirmation. It preceded the 1973 top. It preceded the 2000 top.

It also fired plenty of false alarms.

So which is it this time — warning or noise?

Opinions are cheap. Signals are testable. In 45 minutes, Steve Hill shows you how to read this divergence with rules, not guesswork.

What You’ll Walk Away With

01 · The 2026 Dow, Decoded

Exactly what changed in the Dow 30 and TRAN this year, and why “Industrial” is now mostly a nickname — Goldman, Nvidia, and Apple drive this index.

02 · Dow Theory in Plain English

What a DJIA/TRAN non-confirmation actually signals, when it has mattered historically, and when it hasn’t.

03 · The Oil Overlay

Why $100 crude hits the 20 Transports stocks directly (4 airlines, heavy trucking) while barely touching today’s Dow 30 — and making a group of fuel-sensitive names in TradingExpert Pro.

The last few weeks have been a gut-check: the Dow shed over 800 points in a session, the Nasdaq dropped 4% as the semiconductors rolled over, the VIX is spiking, and roughly a trillion dollars of market value has evaporated.

This is exactly the environment that separates disciplined traders from emotional ones.

Join Steve Hill, CEO of AIQ Systems, as He Covers

01 · Before the Drop

What AIQ’s Market Timing model and Expert Rating were signaling before the drop

02 · Calling the Turn

How MACD divergence and Phase Analysis called the turn in the semiconductors

03 · Finding the Leaders

An EDS screen to surface the stocks quietly holding up while everything else sells off

It’s a demonstration of reacting to the rules instead of the noise — the whole point of trading a system.

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Watch Steve Hill break down market internals — and reveal why the S&P 500’s biggest moves are hiding inside just one sector.

The market is sending mixed signals. The Dow hits new highs. But under the surface, most sectors are going nowhere.

In this free video session, AIQ’s Steve Hill walks you through exactly what’s happening right now — and how TradingExpert Pro’s Expert Rating is helping traders cut through the noise.

In This Session You’ll See

01 · The Warning Before the Noise

How two Expert Rating down signals in May flagged the warning before most traders noticed

02 · One Sector, 30% of the Move

Why the technology sector now drives 30% of S&P 500 movement — and what that means for your timing

03 · Sector Breadth, Rebuilt

The new sector breadth analysis approach using 11 S&P 500 segments to pinpoint where opportunity is building

04 · Early Buy Signals

Which sectors — healthcare, materials — are flashing early buy signals right now

05 · The Catch-Up Question

Why the equal-weighted S&P 500 is lagging badly — and what it takes for the broader market to play catch-up

This isn’t theory. It’s the same analysis AIQ subscribers use every week to stay on the right side of the market.

After 30 years of teaching systematic trading — in seminar rooms in London, Chicago, Los Angeles, and everywhere in between — I’ve published the book I always wanted to exist.

Not a stock-picking guide. Not a single-indicator book.

A complete, systematic framework for reading the market itself.

TIMING THE MARKET: A Systematic Approach to Trading Stock Market Indices

Here’s the insight that drove every chapter:

The S&P 500 is dominated by eight or nine mega-cap technology stocks. Apple. Microsoft. NVIDIA. Alphabet. Amazon. Meta. When those stocks rise, the index rises — even if 400 of the other 500 stocks in the index are falling.

That’s not a market reading. That’s a distortion.

Breadth analysis cuts through this deception. The NYSE Advance-Decline Line, the McClellan Oscillator, New Highs vs. New Lows — these indicators give you the democratic, unweighted, honest picture of what the market is actually doing beneath the surface.

Historically, when the A-D Line diverges negatively from the headline index — when the index is making new highs but the A-D Line is already rolling over — the market is sending an early warning. One that the cap-weighted index won’t show for weeks or months.

This happened before the dot-com crash. Before 2007-2008. Before 2022.

The book covers the complete timing framework:

📊 NYSE and NASDAQ breadth — A-D Line, McClellan Oscillator, TRIN

📈 Moving averages, Golden/Death Cross, index intermarket relationships

🏛️ Federal Reserve policy, yield curve, NFP, CPI, ISM PMI

🤖 AIQ TradingExpert Pro — Expert Rating on SPY, QQQ, DIA

📋 The 4-Pillar Decision Framework — Green, Amber, Red positioning every week

📉 2022 Bear Market case study — fully annotated, every signal in real time

Launch price: $59 (regular $99). https://aiqeducation.com/timingthemarket/

#MarketTiming #TechnicalAnalysis #AIQSystems #Investing #StockMarket #TradingExpertPro #BreadthAnalysis #SystematicTrading

Steve Hill just wrapped a fast-paced 10-minute deep dive into something most traders have never seen done before: using sector ETF breadth data inside AIQ TradingExpert Pro to spot market rotation before it shows up in price.

Here’s why this is different from anything else out there:

Most breadth analysis stops at the NYSE or NASDAQ level. You see advancing vs. declining stocks, and you get a general sense of market health. That’s useful — but it’s incomplete.

When you break the S&P 500 down into its eleven sectors and track each one’s internal breadth data, something remarkable happens. You can see which sectors are quietly leading… and which are fading, even when the headline index looks fine.

Steve walks you through exactly how to set this up in TradingExpert Pro using special sector ETF tickers — and how to read the combined picture to spot high-probability rotation opportunities.

This is institutional-level analysis, built right into the software. Here are the files to make it happen. Don’t have AIQ? There’s a $1 trial offer below for you to check it out.

The 11 SP500 Sector markets are available in this zip file, unzip these to your wintes32/mdata folder

The 11 State Street ETFs are likely already in your AIQ database but are available in this zip file, unzip these to your /wintes32/tdata folder.

The list file for the 11 SP500 Sector markets is here, save to your wintes32 folder. 

Make sure you go to Data Manager and under Utilities perform a Rebuild Master Ticker List. Also when updating your data each day, select Update Breadth Tickers and Compute Markets are selected.

The Zweig Thrust was also used on this video, the EDS file for this is here, save to your /wintes32/EDS Strategies folder. In Charts go to Chart, Settings, Indicator Library, EDS Indicators. Add the location to the Zweig EDS file, and for indicator type select one line with upper/lower support. Upper support set to 61, lower support to 40.