Recording of an hour-long session with Steve Hill, CEO of AIQ Systems. It’s one of the longest-running AI-based systems in the world. Like any AI it isn’t perfect. In this session, Steve covered leveraging these ratings for effective trading decisions. Includes an EDS file that scans for unusual rating patterns of 11-59, 16-56, and 76-5.
It’s been a couple of months since we last looked at the Market Timing AI Expert System. Since that time the 400 rules that make up this AI system have generated a cluster of 3 down signals, followed by a buy signal and then most recently another down signal.
In this 7 minute video Steve Hill, CEO of AIQ Systems explores the signals and the confirmation techniques used to verfiy the ratings, together with the primary rules that fired.
The Expert System in TradingExpert Pro gave a 1 – 99 down signal on the Dow Jones on 8-27-20. The market internals based on the advancing vs declining issue in the New York market continue to diverge from the market price action.
The phase indicator used to confirm Expert Ratings turned down on 8-31-20. We usually look for a phase confirmation of an Expert Rating to occur within 3 days of the rating.
The changes made in the constituents of the Dow 30 effective 8-31-20
Market volatility has stabilized some. In this update we’ll take a look at the current AI signals on the Dow Jones. For folks less familiar with our AI engine here’s a recap of what we do.
TradingExpert Pro uses two AI knowledge bases, one specifically designed to issue market timing signals and the other designed to issue stock timing signals.
Each contains approximately 400 rules, but only a few “fire” on any given day. In the language of expert systems, those rules that are found to be valid on a particular day are described as having “fired”.
Rules can fire in opposite directions. When this happens, the bullish and bearish rules fight it out. It’s only when bullish rules dominate that the Expert Rating signal is bullish, or when bearish rules dominate that the Expert Rating signal is bearish.
The Expert Rating consists of two values.
The upside rating is the value on the left and the downside rating is on the right. Expert Ratings are based on a scale of 0 to 100. An Expert Rating of 95 to 100 is considered a strong signal that the Stock or market may change direction.
An Expert Rating below 90 is considered meaningless. A low rating means that there is not enough consistency in the rules that fired to translate to a signal. The expert system has not found enough evidence to warrant a change from the last strong signal.
Tuesday our intraday snapshot revealed groups were strong still, but the Expert System showed weakness in stocks – we can profit while markets are still open.
We downloaded the snapshot midway through the trading day, ran our reports and right off noticed the AI Expert Rating system on stocks showed far more down ratings than up. The groups were still strongly up.
This video shows what we saw mid morning 9-10-19
The fastest way to browse hundreds of charts end of day is back with a vengeance. AIQ TradingExpert Pro has always been known for its ability to browse hundreds of daily price charts at blizzard speeds (one of the many unique features in the platform).
The fastest way to browse hundreds of charts end of day is back with a vengeance. AIQ TradingExpert Pro has always been known for its ability to browse hundreds of daily price charts at blizzard speeds (one of the many unique features in the platform).
Also includes historical data on US and Canadian stocks updated every night and Mutual Fund NAVs updated each night.
How do traders use this powerful data?
For the Chart Pattern Recognition traders this is the Ferrari of analysis tools. It’s simple to scan hundreds of charts to see the patterns emerging the same day it’s happening.
For traders who look for groups or sectors on the move, our intraday snapshot updates AIQ’s powerful groups and sectors too, so you can get ahead of a move in the market segments before the rest of the crowd.
For traders who want to place trades in the last hour of the trading day, downloading a snapshot in the last hour of trading day has almost the entire days action for your stocks, you can do your end of day analyze and place tomorrows trades today.
PLUS all the powerful features of AIQ TradingExpert Pro end of day including
AI-based Signals Uncover Hidden Trades – Award winning AI-based expert system screens for trading candidates that may have been missed by other systems, giving you an edge.
Time Saving Analysis with Chart Barometer – Our Indicator Barometer gives you an instant evaluation of the status of all indicators for each chart. Saving you time and allowing an easy to read analysis of any ticker.
Every Chart your way with Custom Layouts – Whether you prefer price bar, candlestick, or point and figure charts, we’ve got them. Plus, TradingExpert Pro delivers all the trendline and drawing tools that you expect in a top end package, including Fibonacci Studies, Gann Fans, and Regression Lines.
Time Saving Power! 200 Screening Reports – TradingExpert Pro automatically performs millions of computations and delivers instant access to one and two-page reports highlighting trading candidates for stocks, indexes, mutual funds, groups and sectors and more. Want to find tickers in a trend? We got it. Relative strength? Upside and downside at your fingertips. Volume Spikes, Persistence of Money Flow, Price Gap, Point and Figure Breakouts and many many more……All generated each day automatically…
Building a Trading System just got a Whole lot Easier – TradingExpert Pro provides an amazing way to design, test, and automate virtually any trading idea. It’s called the Expert Design Studio and is considered by traders to be the best tool of its kind. That’s because it combines a point-and-click interactive trading library with state-of-the-art back testing and gives you the ability to produce custom screening reports. PLUS our Pre-built strategies have been fine-tuned by our analysts to produce outstanding results. They include Growth, Divergence, Short Selling, Day Trading, and Bottom Fishing models, to name just a few.
Complete Array of Analysis Tools – TradingExpert Pro’s Proven Market Timing “too good to ignore.” Introduced in 1986, AIQ’s market timing system called the Crash of ‘87 and has called all major market moves since. Its multi-indicator, rule-based approach for determining market direction is time proven.
AND TradingExpert Pro also includes:
Professional Level Portfolio Management
Matchmaking Correlation tools
Automate Your Winning Systems with Portfolio Simulation Tools
Also includes historical data on US and Canadian stocks updated every night and Mutual Fund NAVs updated each night.
When AIQ released StockExpert in 1987, the Expert Ratings were the foundation of the system. This release represented the first software product developed for personal computers that used Artificial Intelligence to signal equity movement. AIQ’s founder and knowledge engineer, Dr. J.D. Smith, chose to use expert system technology that was developed at Stanford University in the late 60’s. An expert system uses a knowledge based rule driven structure.
Dr. Smith tested hundreds of technical rules that had been published by respected analysts.Those rules that tested well were placed into a knowledge base of rules. Rules were weighted based on their effectiveness. When a series of bullish rules was triggered, an Expert Rating buy signal was generated. A series of bearish rules generated an Expert Rating sell signal.
In this video Steve Hill explains the internal rules of the Expert System that generated the signal
The sell signal that the AI system issued on April 18, 2019 presaged a 2000 point move down. Things have now changed. On June 4, 2019 the AI system issued a buy signal.
The AIQ TradingExpert Pro Market Timing Expert System uses over 400 rules based on numerous technical indicator conditions to determine if a change in the current trend is imminent. The signals can be quite early and confirmation from other indicators not used in the AI system, like Phase are recommended. Quick disclaimer, we are not advisors and do not give recommendations.
Here’s the signal from last week. The number of stocks with new highs vs new lows is clearly showing a persistent down trend, while the market has been flat.
By clicking the ER button in Charts we can see some of the major rules that have fired to generate the signal
The AIQ market Log in Reports provides additional information that gives us some broader information on the market. here we can see how a broad range of indicators on the market are fairing and also the percentage of buy vs sell signals on stocks in the S & P 500 (Unconfirmed signals 43-57, confirmed signals 33-67) .
The market action from Tuesday generated a second down signal of 2-98, following the 200 point fall in the Dow. The major rules that fired this time are below.
While never perfect, we always take heed when this many rules are firing
Artificial Intelligence Market Signal issues a 0-100 to the downside on June 10, 2016
AIQ TradingExpert AI signals are designed to anticipate changes in the direction of price movement. Some are accurate and some are not. However, more often than not, the Expert Rating signals are accurate. The strongest level of confirmation for market timing signals like this 0-100 down on June 10, 2016 can be found by examining one of TradingExpert’s other market indication components.
One possible confirmation of market timing signals (Expert Ratings of 95 or greater) is the the Up/Down Signal Ratio, on the Weighted Action List (WAL), an AIQ report. A Signal Ratio of 85 or greater in the direction of the signal could be viewed as significant, as the AI system used for stocks is completely separate in terms of expert system knowledge base and data, and share no information or expert rules with the market timing system.
The image below is taken from the AIQ Reports Daily Market Log. This report pulls elements from various parts of TradingExpert. You’ll notice the 0-100 down signal on DJIA on 6/10/2016. Just below that is WAL 5-95. This is the Up/Down Signal Ratio from the Weighted Action List (WAL) in this case using SP500 stocks. This 5-95 confirms that 95% of the SP500 stocks have down signals according to the stock expert system.
The Access Plot area on the right gives a bullish/bearish consensus for the SP 500 stocks using 16 technical indicators.
The two independent components of TradingExpert are in agreement calling for the market to move in the same direction. This is a very powerful type of validation, both the equity and market timing systems have signaled a change in market direction at the same time.
While no system is perfect, it is interesting to note the previous 0-100 market timing signal occurred December 8, 2015 prior to the correction at the start of 2016.
