Category Archives: group and sector

Buy Low(?)

June 8, 2018educational newsletters, ETFS, group and sector, indexes, jay kaeppeladmin

There are a lot of ways to play this game.

For the record, I am a big believer in trend-following. Picking tops and bottoms with any consistency is essentially impossible (at least in my opinion and/or experience). So from that perspective going with the trend makes a lot of sense. I am also a big believer in relative strength. Much evidence over the years suggests that buying what is “already moving” is a very viable approach to investing. Other studies have demonstrated pretty clearly that you are generally much more likely to succeed by buying stocks making new highs than by buying stocks making new lows.

These approaches make good sense and they work very well over time. Despite this many (most?) investors still feel those pangs to “buy low” in hopes of getting in early and riding a major trend. And the truth (I think) is that this can work too, if done correctly.

Like I said, there are a lot of ways to play this game. But there is a definite “right” way and “wrong” way when it comes to “buying low.”

Buying Low (The Wrong Way): Buy things are plummeting or that have recently plummeted.

The Right Way (The Right Way): Buy things that have, a) plummeted, b) stopped plummeting and, c) have since been moving sideways for some period of time.

Last year I wrote about a “Buy Low” portfolio that I had concocted at the time. Unfortunately, several of the ETFs involved have since ceased trading. So in this piece I will introduce my updated “Buy Low” portfolio. For the record – and as always – I am not “recommending” this portfolio. It is essentially an experiment in one alternative approach to investing.

The “Buy Low” Portfolio

The Buy Low Portfolio consists of the following ETF’s and ETN’s:

CANE – Tecrium Sugar

JJOFF – Coffee Subindex Total Return

DBA – PowerShares Agricultural

WEAT – Tecrium Wheat

GLD – StreetTracks Gold Trust

PPLT – ETFS Physical Platinum Shares

SLV – iShares Silver Trust

GDX – Market Vectors Gold Miners

UNG – United States Natural Gas

URA – Global X Uranium

Monthly charts for these tickers appear in Figures 1 through 3. A chart of the composite index I created by combining all of these appears in Figure 4 (Click any chart to enlarge).

Figure 1 – CANE/DBA/GDX/GLD (courtesy AIQ TradingExpert Pro)

Figure 2 – JJOFF/PPLT/SLV/UNG (courtesy AIQ TradingExpert Pro)

Figure 3 – URA/UNG (courtesy AIQ TradingExpert Pro)

Figure 4 – Buy Low Composite Index (courtesy AIQ TradingExpert Pro)

Editors note: To create an index like Jay’s Trending Low, follow the instructions at the end of this article ‘Creating an index for a group of tickers in Data Manager’

Summary

Securities that have plummeted in price and then moved sideways for a period of time can (unfortunately) continue to move sideways for quite a while longer before (hopefully) breaking out to the upside. Even worst, they can also fail and breakdown through the previous low. But extended consolidation patterns are often followed by something good.

As you can see all of the tickers in the list above are commodity related. As I’ve written about here and here there is reason to believe that commodities will outperform in the years ahead. That being said, with the stock market rallying in the near-term and with the U.S. Dollar strong there is no compelling reason to think that this “Buy Low Portfolio” is going to make a lot of headway anytime soon.

The Index in Figure 4 is presently 8.2% above its January 2016 low. As long as that low holds I’ll give this experiment more time to work out.

Jay Kaeppel

Disclaimer: The data presented herein were obtained from various third-party sources. While I believe the data to be reliable, no representation is made as to, and no responsibility, warranty or liability is accepted for the accuracy or completeness of such information. The information, opinions and ideas expressed herein are for informational and educational purposes only and do not constitute and should not be construed as investment advice, an advertisement or offering of investment advisory services, or an offer to sell or a solicitation to buy any security.

Creating an index for a group of tickers in Data Manager

NOTE: tickers with X in list need to be added to the Data Manager as new tickers and downloaded from your data service

When you create an index for a group of tickers, you can display a chart of the index as well as the underlying tickers. A group index can be analyzed on charts using technical indicators, and Expert Ratings are generated for the group index (except for mutual fund
groups).

The procedure for creating an index for a group of tickers is as follows:

First, create a group ticker for the index.
Then create a list to insert the group ticker into.
Add tickers to the group.
Finally, create the index by executing the Compute Group/Sector Indices function.

To create an index for a group of tickers, follow the steps below.

First, create a group ticker:

1. First, add a new group ticker to your Master Ticker List. Select the
Ticker command on the menu bar. Then select New to display the
New Ticker dialog box.
2. Enter a ticker for the new group, then be sure to enter the proper
Type designation (group or mutual fund group).
3. Click OK, and the second dialog box for entering a new ticker
appears.
4. Type in a name (Description) and the First Date for data. The
remaining default settings on this second dialog box can remain the
same.
5. Click OK and the group ticker is added to your Master Ticker List.

Then, create a list to insert the group ticker into:

1. Select the List command on the menu bar.
2. Select New on the drop-down menu and a dialog box appears.
3. Type in a name (8 characters maximum) in the text box.
4. Click OK and the list name appears in the Selected List text box
located on the toolbar.
5. The list name is also displayed in the List window. Insert the group
ticker from your Master Ticker List under the list name. To insert a ticker directly under a list, do the following:

Highlight (by clicking) the group ticker in the Master Ticker List.
Click the list name in the List window.
Click the Insert to List button on the toolbar (or select the Insert Ticker command from the List sub-menu).
The group ticker will appear in the List window under the list name.

6. Next, insert tickers into the group. To insert tickers into a group:
Under the new group, insert all of the tickers that will make up the
group by doing the following:

Select the group ticker in the List window by clicking on it.
Select in your Master Ticker List the tickers that you want to add to the group. If you are inserting multiple tickers, hold down the Ctrl key while clicking each ticker.
Click the Insert to List button on the toolbar (or select the Insert Ticker command from the List sub-menu).
The tickers will appear in the List window under the group ticker.

7. Finally, compute the index for the new group. To compute a group index:

Select Compute Group/Sector Indices from the Utilities sub-menu.
In the Compute Group/Sector Indices dialog box, click the Compute List(s) option button.
In the text box for Compute List(s), select the name of the list you created above.
Under Range, choose Update from Last Date of Data and click OK.

A Bottom-Picking Portfolio

November 14, 2017ETFS, group and sector, jay kaeppeladmin

In a recent article I highlighted some stocks that appeared to have a chance of “putting in a low”. In another article, I highlighted the potential usefulness of “horizontal lines” on a chart. The phrase “putting in a low” is essentially a kindler, gentler version of the phrase “Hey, let’s pick a bottom”.

The reality is that the ability to “pick tops and/or bottoms” on any kind of a consistent basis is a skill that roughly 99.2% of all investors and traders do not possess. That being said, there is such a thing as a legitimate “bottom formation” (at least in my market addled opinion). A security that bounces several or more times off a particular price is sending information that the sellers may be running out of ammunition. These levels can be observed by drawing horizontal trend lines across a price chart – connecting recent highs and/or lows at roughly similar prices.

“Loading up” in this situation is not recommended. But committing an acceptable percentage of one’s portfolio (a level which each investor must decide on their own) to such opportunities is a perfectly acceptable form of speculation.

So for arguments sake, below is a “Bottom Pickers Portfolio”. As always, I am not recommending this as an investment, simply highlighting an alternative idea for your further consideration.

The Tickers

The tickers included in this portfolio are mostly all commodity related. That is not a purposeful choice; they simply “fit the model”.

First is ticker BAL – an ETF that tracks the price of cotton futures. The critical level for BAL is roughly the $43.50 area.

Figure 1 – Ticker BAL (Courtesy AIQ TradingExpert)

Ticker GDX tracks a gold stock index and has been consolidating in a relatively tight range after last year’s sharp rally and subsequent pullback.

Figure 2 – Ticker GDX (Courtesy AIQ TradingExpert)

Ticker JO tracks the price of coffee futures. This is one of the weakest charts on the list and is dangerously close to failing to the downside. However, if the low holds this will strengthen the outlook a great deal.

Figure 3 – Ticker JO (Courtesy AIQ TradingExpert)

Ticker SGG tracks the price of sugar futures. SGG has been consolidating in a narrow range for about four months. Key price levels on the downside are $26.50 and the August 2015 low of $24.79.

Figure 4 – Ticker SGG (Courtesy AIQ TradingExpert)

Ticker SWN is Southwestern Energy Co. After a long, devastating decline the stock is attempting to form a low in the $5 a share range.

Figure 5 – Ticker SWN (Courtesy AIQ TradingExpert)

Ticker UNG tracks natural gas futures. Thanks to the advent of fracking – which is made natural gas abundantly available – the price of natural gas has collapsed in recent years. In the past week it retested its 2016 low and then ticked higher. Like JO, this one is precariously close to “failing”. But for now…

Figure 6 – Ticker UNG (Courtesy AIQ TradingExpert)

The Bottom Pickers Portfolio

I use AIQ TradingExpert software to create my own “Groups”. So I created one called “Lows” to include the six tickers above. The group consists of an equal dollar investment in each ticker. The chart for this combination of tickers appears in Figure 7.EDITORS NOTE: Creating your own groups is accomplished in the TradingExpert Data Manager information can be found in this article ‘Adding groups and sectors to your Group/Sector List’

Figure 7 – The “Lows” Group (Courtesy AIQ TradingExpert)

Summary

Let me be blunt. There is every chance that the majority of the tickers highlighted above will continue their long-term bearish trends and break down to the downside causing further losses for those holding these shares.

The primary thing to highlight in this piece is a personal preference. I prefer “horizontal” lines on a chart – i.e., straight across, left to right – to the more typical slanted trend lines that most traders use. The reason is simply – upward or downward slanting trend lines require a trader to decide which two (or more) highs (or lows) to connect in order to draw the trend line. At the end of the day this is often a subjective decision.

Horizontal trend lines – which connect to (at least roughly equal) highs or lows – are generated by the market itself and as such, are more objective in nature. In other words, investor buying and selling determines these levels.

Will my “Bottom Pickers Portfolio” move to the upside or fail to the downside? We’ll just have to wait to find out.

Jay Kaeppel Chief Market Analyst at JayOnTheMarkets.com and AIQ TradingExpert Pro client.

Adding groups and sectors to your Group/Sector List

November 14, 2017group and sectoradmin

Adding groups and sectors to your Group/Sector List

If for some reason you want to add to the Group/Sector List delivered with the system, TradingExpert Pro provides the necessary functions.

The procedure for adding to your Group/Sector List is as follows:

1. Add any new stocks to the Master Ticker List

2. Add new group tickers to the Master Ticker List.

3. Add new sector tickers to the Master Ticker List.

4. Add new sectors to the Group/Sector List. Under each new sector, insert the groups that will make up that sector.

5. Add new groups to the Group/Sector List. Under each new group, insert the stocks that will make up that group.

6. Use the Compute Group/Sector Indices function to compute indices for the new groups and sectors.

7. Use the Set RS Symbols function to set relative strength relationships.

Can a ticker be entered in more than one group?

TradingExpert Pro allows you to enter a ticker in more than one group. For example, you may want to follow an index of locally-owned companies by placing them in a newly created group. One of those companies could be a computer software development company that you would want to include in an industry group of computer stocks. You can enter an equity into as many user created groups as you want, but it is important that you do not enter these user created groups into sectors. Only principal industry groups should be collected into a sector.

Adding a new sector to your Group/Sector List

Proceed as follows:

1. First, add a new sector ticker to your Master Ticker List. Click the Ticker command on the menu bar. Then click New to display the New Ticker dialog box.

2. Enter a ticker for the new sector, then be sure to enter the proper Type designation (sector).

3. Click OK, and the second dialog box for entering a new ticker appears.

4. Type in a name (Description) and the First Date of data. The remaining default settings on this second dialog box can remain the same.

5. Click OK, and the new sector ticker will be added to the Master Ticker List.

6. Insert the new sector ticker into your Group/Sector List by doing the following:

• Display the Group/Sector List in the left (List) window by choosing its name from the Selected List text box on the toolbar.

• Highlight the new sector in the Master Ticker List by clicking on its name with your mouse.

• Again using your mouse, click the name of the master sector in the List window.

• Select the Insert Ticker(s) command on the List sub-menu or click the Insert to list toolbar button.

7. Before inserting groups under the new sector, be sure to create any new group tickers and add them to the Master Ticker List.

8. Insert all of the groups that will make up the new sector by doing the following:

• Select in the Master Ticker List all of the groups you want to add by simply holding down the Ctrl key while clicking each group.

• Again using your mouse, click the new sector in the Group/Sector List under which you want to insert the groups.

• Select the Insert Ticker(s) command on the List sub-menu or click the Insert to list toolbar button.

Adding a new group to your Group/Sector List

Follow these steps:

1. First, add a new group ticker to the Master Ticker List. Click the Ticker command on the menu bar. Then click New to display the New Ticker dialog box.

2. Enter a ticker for the new group, then be sure to enter the proper Type designation (group).

3. Click OK, and the second dialog box for entering a new ticker appears.

4. Type in a name (Description) and the First Date of data. The remaining default settings on this second dialog box can remain the same.

5. Click OK, and the new group ticker will be added to the Master Ticker List.

6. Insert the new group ticker into your Group/Sector List by doing the following:

• Display the Group/Sector List in the left (List) window by choosing its name from the Selected List text box on the toolbar.

• Highlight the new group in the Master Ticker List by clicking on it with your mouse.

• Again using your mouse, click the sector in the List window under which you want to insert the new group. If the list is fully contracted, you may need to use the Expand Level command on the List sub-menu to display all of the sectors.

• Select the Insert Ticker(s) command on the List sub-menu or click the Insert to list toolbar button.

7. Before inserting stocks under the new group, be sure to add any new stocks to your Master Ticker List.

8. Insert stocks by doing the following:

• Select in the Master Ticker List all of the stocks you want to add by simply holding down the Ctrl key while clicking each stock.

• Again using your mouse, click the new group in the Group/Sector List under which you want to insert the stocks.

• Select the Insert Ticker(s) command on the List sub-menu or click the Insert to list toolbar button.

Computing indices for a new group or sector

Following your next data retrieval, the group and sector indices will be automatically computed. However, when you add a new group or sector to your Group/Sector List, and you want to see an analysis at once without waiting for your next data retrieval, you can use the Compute Group/Sector Indices function to create the index.

To use Compute Group/Sector Indices:

1. Click Utilities on the Data Manager menu bar to display the drop-down menu.

2. Select Compute Group/Sector Indices from this menu. The Compute Group/Sector Indices dialog box appears.

3. In the Source section, click the option button for Selected Group(s) Symbols, then select your new group or sector in the text box. Check to compute both Parent and Child symbols.

4. In the Range section, select the first option, Update from Last Date of Data.

5. Choose OK. The computation will begin.

6. After you have computed group/sector indices, you should execute the function Set RS Indicators.

Setting relative strength relationships

This function sets your relative strength indicators to conform with parent/child relationships. Then, when you are working in Charts, you can easily see the relative strength of the stock vs. its parent group, a group vs. its parent sector, or a sector vs. the master sector.

To set Relative Strength Indicators:

1. Click Utilities on the Data Manager menu bar to display the drop-down menu.

2. Select Set RS Symbols. Then select Set RS Tickers. The Set RS Tickers dialog box appears.

3. Click the name of your list in the Selected Lists text box.

4. Click the first option, Set Relative Strength Relationships (overwrite).

5. Choose the OK button.

Building a new Group/Sector List

If for some reason you would want to build a new Group/Sector List, first create a new list and master sector, then follow the procedure above for adding groups and sectors to the list.

U.S. Stocks Lead, World Lags (Part II)

December 22, 2016educational newsletters, ETFS, group and sector, jay kaeppel, stock marketadmin

In my last piece I note that the U.S. stock market presently stands alone in terms of recent performance. While virtually every major U.S. stock market average has run to new highs in the last several weeks, not one other individual country has really even come close. While this might induce spontaneous chants of “USA, USA”, the truth is that this may not necessarily be a good thing.
This current disconnect will likely be resolved in one of two ways:

A) The USA will drag the rest of the world screaming and kicking to enjoy in our newfound prosperity (assuming of course that we finally stumble upon that actual newfound prosperity that the stock market is telling us we should be celebrating).

B) The USA fails to pull up the rest of the world and the US stock market gets “dragged down” with the rest of the world’s bourses.

This is the part in the article where a skilled market analyst would offer up a clear and concise opinion of what will happen next and why. And if one happens to stop by the office in the next few minutes or so I will ask him or her what they think. All I know is that at the moment the US stock market is in an uptrend and that the majority of the rest of the world’s stock markets are fair to middling at best (with many looking much worse).

Until something changes I will stick to the US market, thank you very much.

A Little “Worldly” Perspective

What follows is essentially the world (stock markets) in pictures. The purpose is simply to provide you with some perspective regarding the state of the markets around the globe.

The key thing to note is:

*Figure 1 shows U.S. stocks making new highs

*Figures 2 through 6 show the rest of the world’s stock markets lagging far behind

Click Figures 1 through 6 to enlarge

Figure 1 – U.S. Stocks soaring to new highs (Courtesy AIQ TradingExpert )

Figure 2 – My Own Index of Single Country ETFs; -17% below 2014 high (Courtesy AIQ TradingExpert )

Editor’s note: information on creating your own index of ETFs or any other tickers in TradingExpert can be found here http://www.aiqsystems.com/Feb06%20OBM.pdf on page 5, titled Ability to Create Industry Groups for Your Special Trading Needs….

In Figures 3 through 6 note that the overall “stock market malaise” is not limited to one portion of our earth, but rather stretches pretty far East, West, North, South and pretty much all points in between.

Figure 3 – Middle East Stocks; -40% below 2007 high (Courtesy AIQ TradingExpert )

Figure 4 – European Stocks; -36% below 2007 high (Courtesy AIQ TradingExpert )

Figure 5 – Asia-Pacific Stocks;-17% below 2014 high (Courtesy AIQ TradingExpert )

Figure 6 – North/South America Stocks; -22% below 2011 high (Courtesy AIQ TradingExpert )

Wishing you (please choose any or all of the following that are applicable):

*Merry Christmas

*Happy New Year

*Happy Holidays

*Joy

*Peace on Earth

*[Some other phrase that you do not find offensive here]

Jay Kaeppel

Chief Market Analyst at JayOnTheMarkets.com and AIQ TradingExpert Pro ( AIQ Systems) client. http://jayonthemarkets.com/

It’s all relative you see

September 19, 2016group and sector, indexes, stock market, Stock tradingadmin

The markets have been shall we say been less than inspiring recently. Brexit came and went with a brief hiccup in the action and only in the last week or so has the volatility picked up. The Dow as you can see in this weekly chart is back the same level as December 2014

The VXX shows clearly the decline in volatility since the high back in 2011

The summer doldrums may be over, but during periods when the market is range bound, segments within the market are often performing very well or very poorly. One AIQ Report that can show the strength within segments is the Relative Strength Strong – Short Term. This report shows stocks in 3 month trend up and is a great report for those who trade with ‘the trend is your friend’. Here is Friday 9-16-2016 report. The report is ranked by the stocks with the best trend.

I highlighted 6 stocks in the top of this report. All have good trends in place, and all in the Oil and Exploration S&P 500 group. The group has performed quite well recently. The top 2 OILEXPO stocks CHK and DVN have both had a small pullback to their uptrend line. We’ll see how they do this week.