The Dow was up a snap back from the prior fall into the close? We downloaded the snapshot 90 minutes into the trading day. This video shows what we found, and how you can use this to get ahead of the rest of the market.
The fastest way to browse hundreds of charts end of day is back with a vengeance. AIQ TradingExpert Pro has always been known for its ability to browse hundreds of daily price charts at blizzard speeds (one of the many unique features in the platform).
The fastest way to browse hundreds of charts end of day is back with a vengeance. AIQ TradingExpert Pro has always been known for its ability to browse hundreds of daily price charts at blizzard speeds (one of the many unique features in the platform).
Also includes historical data on US and Canadian stocks updated every night and Mutual Fund NAVs updated each night.
How do traders use this powerful data?
For the Chart Pattern Recognition traders this is the Ferrari of analysis tools. It’s simple to scan hundreds of charts to see the patterns emerging the same day it’s happening.
For traders who look for groups or sectors on the move, our intraday snapshot updates AIQ’s powerful groups and sectors too, so you can get ahead of a move in the market segments before the rest of the crowd.
For traders who want to place trades in the last hour of the trading day, downloading a snapshot in the last hour of trading day has almost the entire days action for your stocks, you can do your end of day analyze and place tomorrows trades today.
PLUS all the powerful features of AIQ TradingExpert Pro end of day including
AI-based Signals Uncover Hidden Trades – Award winning AI-based expert system screens for trading candidates that may have been missed by other systems, giving you an edge.
Time Saving Analysis with Chart Barometer – Our Indicator Barometer gives you an instant evaluation of the status of all indicators for each chart. Saving you time and allowing an easy to read analysis of any ticker.
Every Chart your way with Custom Layouts – Whether you prefer price bar, candlestick, or point and figure charts, we’ve got them. Plus, TradingExpert Pro delivers all the trendline and drawing tools that you expect in a top end package, including Fibonacci Studies, Gann Fans, and Regression Lines.
Time Saving Power! 200 Screening Reports – TradingExpert Pro automatically performs millions of computations and delivers instant access to one and two-page reports highlighting trading candidates for stocks, indexes, mutual funds, groups and sectors and more. Want to find tickers in a trend? We got it. Relative strength? Upside and downside at your fingertips. Volume Spikes, Persistence of Money Flow, Price Gap, Point and Figure Breakouts and many many more……All generated each day automatically…
Building a Trading System just got a Whole lot Easier – TradingExpert Pro provides an amazing way to design, test, and automate virtually any trading idea. It’s called the Expert Design Studio and is considered by traders to be the best tool of its kind. That’s because it combines a point-and-click interactive trading library with state-of-the-art back testing and gives you the ability to produce custom screening reports. PLUS our Pre-built strategies have been fine-tuned by our analysts to produce outstanding results. They include Growth, Divergence, Short Selling, Day Trading, and Bottom Fishing models, to name just a few.
Complete Array of Analysis Tools – TradingExpert Pro’s Proven Market Timing “too good to ignore.” Introduced in 1986, AIQ’s market timing system called the Crash of ‘87 and has called all major market moves since. Its multi-indicator, rule-based approach for determining market direction is time proven.
AND TradingExpert Pro also includes:
Professional Level Portfolio Management
Matchmaking Correlation tools
Automate Your Winning Systems with Portfolio Simulation Tools
Also includes historical data on US and Canadian stocks updated every night and Mutual Fund NAVs updated each night.
As usual, you can pretty much see whatever you want to see in today’s stock market. Consider the major indexes in Figure 1, displayed along with their respective 200-day moving averages.
If you “want to” be bullish, you can focus on the fact that all 4 of these major indexes are presently above their respective 200-day moving averages. This essentially defines an “uptrend”; hence you can make a bullish argument.
If you want to be “bearish”, you can focus on the “choppy” nature of the market’s performance and the fact that very little headway has been made since the highs in early 2018. This “looks like” a classic “topping pattern” (i.e., a lot of “churning”), hence you can make a bearish argument.
To add more intrigue, consider the 4 “market bellwethers” displayed in Figure 2.
(NOTE: Previously I had Sotheby’s Holdings – ticker BID – as one my bellwethers. As they are being bought out, I have replaced it with the Value Line Arithmetic Index, which has a history of topping and bottoming prior to the major indexes)
The action here is much more mixed and muddled.
*SMH – for any “early warning” sign keep a close eye on the semiconductors. If they breakout to a new high they could lead the overall market higher. If they breakdown from a double top the market will likely be spooked.
*TRAN – The Dow Transports topped out over a year ago and have been flopping around aimlessly in a narrowing range. Not exactly a bullish sign, but deemed OK as long as price holds above the 200-day moving average.
*ZIV – Inverse VIX is presently below it’s 200-day moving average, so this one qualifies as “bearish” at the moment.
*VAL-I – The Value Line Index is comprised of 1,675 stocks and gives each stock equal weight, so is a good measure of the “overall” market. It presently sits right at its 200-day moving average, however – as you can see in Figure 3 – it is presently telling a different story than the S&P 500 Index.
Figure 3 – S&P 500 trending slightly higher, Value Line unweighted index trending lower (Courtesy AIQ TradingExpert)
The Bottom Line
OK, now here is where a skilled market analyst would launch into an argument regarding which side will actually “win”, accompanied by roughly 5 to 50 “compelling charts” that “clearly show” why the analysts’ said opinion was sure to work out correctly. Alas, there is no one here like that.
If the question is, “will the stock market break out to the upside and run to sharply higher new highs or will it break down without breaking out to new highs?”, I sadly must default to my standard answer of, “It beats me.”
Here is what I can tell you though. Instead of relying on “somebody’s opinion or prediction” a much better bet is to formulate and follow an investment plan that spells out:
*What you will (and will not) invest in?
*How much capital you will allocate to each position?
*How much risk you are willing to take with each position?
*What will cause you to exit with a profit?
*What will cause you to exit with a loss?
*Will you have some overarching “trigger” to cause you to reduce overall exposure?
*And so on and so forth
If you have specific answers for the questions above (you DO have specific answers, don’t you?) then the correct thing to do is to go ahead and follow your plan and ignore the myriad prognostications that attempt to sway you one way or the other.
Jay Kaeppel
Disclaimer: The data presented herein were obtained from various third-party sources. While I believe the data to be reliable, no representation is made as to, and no responsibility, warranty or liability is accepted for the accuracy or completeness of such information. The information, opinions and ideas expressed herein are for informational and educational purposes only and do not constitute and should not be construed as investment advice, an advertisement or offering of investment advisory services, or an offer to sell or a solicitation to buy any security.
Over the last month the S&P 500 has risen 3% and is about 2/3rds of 1% below its high it reached in July. Last month on the Bartometer I stated that my computer models were on a Short term Buy signal and the S&P needed to break out of 2944- 2954 for me to be more bullish. I also said that if the S&P stayed above 2954 for 2 days it should head back to the old high of 3025 or there about and it did. Now that the markets are near their old high, where do I think the markets will go? Well, the answer isn’t so easy to answer. Technically the markets are overbought again but two of the technical indicators that show continuation on are On Balance Volume and Money Flow. Both of these indicators are currently at a New High, when the markets are not. These indicators while not always indicative of further advancement are still positive for a continuation to the upside. See the charts below.
My fundamental economist Dr. Robert Genetski, from ClassicalPrinciples.com said last week’s move by the European Central Bank (ECB) to ease policy is good news for the period immediately ahead. The ECB cut its target interest rate and will indefinitely purchase $20 billion of securities each month beginning in November. The move pressures the Fed and other central banks to also ease policy. Negotiations with China also appear to be moving in a positive direction. China is suffering much more than the US from Trump’s tariffs. China is anxious to reach a deal to avoid further problems. On Wednesday the Fed will follow the ECB and the Bank of Japan (BOJ) by cutting interest rates. Unlike the ECB and BOJ, the Fed will not resume purchases of securities. Hence, the Fed will not be easing policy. However, the perception of a period of global easing is likely to provide a short-term tailwind for boosting stocks and interest rates. Over the past 2 weeks there has been a 30 basis point increase in the yield on 10-year T-Notes. This has narrowed the inversion with 3-month Treasury bills from 50 basis points to 20. The spike in rates means financial markets reflect the view that monetary policy is less restrictive. This view is reinforced by the actions of the EC.
On the Technical Side
My computer models went on a very short term BUY signal 5 weeks ago when the S&P was 2844 and has not gone to a Sell signal, but there needs to now be a push through the 3027 level on the S&P and stay there or there could be a sell off here. Two of my favorite indicators Money Flow and On Balance Volume are at a new high while the index is not. This is a positive indication for continuation on the upside. But remember, we still need to watch all of the information that is coming out of the mouth of all political figures and the global markets, but currently I am still moderately bullish. I never put my guard down. See chart below
Interest Outlook
I see the Federal Reserve reducing interest rates ¼% in December.
Some of the INDEXES of the markets both equities and interest rates are below. The source is Morningstar.com up until September 13th, 2019.
These are passive indexes.
*Dow Jones +18%
S&P 500 +21%
NASDAQ Aggressive growth +25%
I Shares Russell 2000 ETF (IWM) Small cap +18%
International Index (MSCI – EAFE ex USA) +13%
Moderate Mutual Fund +12%
Investment Grade Bonds (AAA) +11% +2.64%
High Yield Merrill Lynch High Yield Index +9% +4.26%
Floating Rate Bond Index +5% +2.60%
Short Term Bond +3%
Fixed Bond Yields (10 year) +1.82.% +2.63%
The average Moderate Fund is up 12% this year fully invested as a 60% in stocks and 40% in bonds. And nothing in the money market
*Explanation of each below
The Dow Jones Index is above. As it contains 30 of the largest industrial and American stocks. You will notice that the Dow above and to the right is approaching its old high achieved in July. It has rallied 5% since the Buy signal my computer models gave last month. But now it has to break out to new highs or it puts in a double top. There are 3 indicators above that are important. The first one is SK-SD Stochastics and it is back to the 88 level and that shows the market is overbought. The 2nd and third are Money Flow and On Balance Volume. Both of those indicators are very important for me to determine confirmation and continuation of the rally. Notice that both of them are at a new high while the Dow Jones is not. This is a positive divergence and hopefully the markets will continue its upward movement. I like the USA markets more than the International markets. The Dow Jones looks better than the S&P and the NASDAQ technically at this time. Remember, volatility will still be present so I would still be somewhat cautious.
Source: AIQ Systems on graphs
*On-balance volume (OBV) is a technical analysis indicator intended to relate price and volume in the stock market. OBV is based on a cumulative total volume.[1] *Money flow is calculated by averaging the high, low and closing prices, and multiplying by the daily volume. Comparing that result with the number for the previous day tells traders whether money flow was positive or negative for the current day. Positive money flow indicates that prices are likely to move higher, while negative money flow suggests prices are about to fall.
Source: Investopedia
*A Support or support level is the level at which buyers tend to purchase or into a stock or index. It refers to the stock share price that a company or index should hold and start to rise. When a price of the stock falls towards its support level, the support level holds and is confirmed, or the stock continues to decline, and the support level must change.
Support levels on the S&P 500 area are 2954.71, 2950, 2944, and 2931. These might be BUY areas.
Support levels on the NASDAQ are 8024, 7969, and 7777 (200 Day Moving Average.
On the Dow Jones support is at 26,766, 26,595, and 26,368
These may be safer areas to get into the equity markets on support levels slowly.
RESISTANCE LEVEL ON THE S&P 500 IS 3028. If there is a favorable tariff settlement, the market should rise short term.
THE BOTTOM LINE:
The Dow, the S&P 500 and the NASDAQ are all near new highs. 5 weeks ago on the Bartometer my computer models went to a Buy signal. Since then, the markets have rallied near their old highs. There are technical patterns that show the markets could breakout to new highs but IF THE MARKETS DON’T BREAKOUT OUT SOON, THE MARKETS COULD TOP OUT. I WILL CONTINUE TO ANALYZE THE TECHNICALs OF THE MARKET. There are seasonal patterns that are usually week. September and October ARE NOT SEASONALLY GOOD MONTHS. It looks like the market wants to goes up but with tweets coming out hourly, market timing will be more difficult. If things come in as Trump expects, watch for a solid rally possibly to the old highs. But there are headwinds currently short term.
Best to all of you,
Joe Bartosiewicz, CFP® Investment Advisor Representative
5 Colby Way Avon, CT 06001 860-940-7020 or 860-404-0408
SECURITIES AND ADVISORY SERVICES OFFERED THROUGH SAGE POINT FINANCIAL INC., MEMBER FINRA/SIPC, AND SEC-REGISTERED INVESTMENT ADVISOR. Charts provided by AIQ Systems: Technical Analysis is based on a study of historical price movements and past trend patterns. There is no assurance that these market changes or trends can or will be duplicated shortly. It logically follows that historical precedent does not guarantee future results. Conclusions expressed in the Technical Analysis section are personal opinions: and may not be construed as recommendations to buy or sell anything.
Disclaimer: The views expressed are not necessarily the view of Sage Point Financial, Inc. and should not be interpreted directly or indirectly as an offer to buy or sell any securities mentioned herein. Securities and Advisory services offered through Sage Point Financial Inc., Member FINRA/SIPC, and SEC-registered investment advisor.
Past performance cannot guarantee future results. Investing involves risk, including the potential loss of principal. No investment strategy can guarantee a profit or protect against loss in periods of declining values. Please note that individual situations can vary. Therefore, the information presented in this letter should only be relied upon when coordinated with individual professional advice. *There is no guarantee that a diversified portfolio will outperform a non-diversified portfolio in any given market environment. No investment strategy, such as asset allocation, can guarantee a profit or protect against loss in periods of declining values. It is our goal to help investors by identifying changing market conditions. However, investors should be aware that no investment advisor can accurately predict all of the changes that may occur in the market. The price of commodities is subject to substantial price fluctuations of short periods and may be affected by unpredictable international monetary and political policies. The market for commodities is widely unregulated, and concentrated investing may lead to Sector investing may involve a greater degree of risk than investments with broader diversification. Indexes cannot be invested indirectly, are unmanaged, and do not incur management fees, costs, and expenses.
Dow Jones Industrial Average: A weighted price average of 30 significant stocks traded on the New York Stock Exchange and the NASDAQ.
S&P 500: The S&P 500 is an unmanaged indexed comprised of 500 widely held securities considered to be representative of the stock market in general.
NASDAQ: the NASDAQ Composite Index is an unmanaged, market-weighted index of all over the counter common stocks traded on the National Association of Securities Dealers Automated Quotation System
(IWM) I Shares Russell 2000 ETF: Which tracks the Russell 2000 index: which measures the performance of the small capitalization sector of the U.S. equity market.
A Moderate Mutual Fund risk mutual has approximately 50-70% of its portfolio in different equities, from growth, income stocks, international and emerging markets stocks to 30- 50% of its portfolio indifferent categories of bonds and cash. It seeks capital appreciation with a low to moderate level of current income.
The Merrill Lynch High Yield Master Index: A broad-based measure of the performance of non-investment grade US Bonds
MSCI EAFE: the MSCI EAFE Index (Morgan Stanley Capital International Europe, Australia, and Far East Index) is a widely recognized benchmark of non-US markets. It is an unmanaged index composed of a sample of companies’ representative of the market structure of 20 European and Pacific Basin countries and includes reinvestment of all dividends.
Investment grade bond index: The S&P 500 Investment-grade corporate bond index, a sub-index of the S&P 500 Bond Index, seeks to measure the performance of the US corporate debt issued by constituents in the S&P 500 with an investment grade rating.
The S&P 500 Bond index is designed to be a corporate-bond counterpart to the S&P 500, which is widely regarded as the best single gauge of large cap US equities.
Floating Rate Bond Index is a rule-based, market-value weighted index engineered to measure the performance and characteristics of floating rate coupon U.S. Treasuries which have a maturity greater than 12 months.
The market timing AI system In AIQ TradingExpert issued a 2-98 down signal on 8-23-19. In this video we explore the elements of the expert system that contributed to this signal and also look at broader confirmation indicators.
The Dow was up modestly, the internals not so hot. We download the snapshot 30 minutes before the trading day closed 8-22-19. This video shows what we found, and how you can use this to get ahead of the rest of the market.
The fastest way to browse hundreds of charts end of day is back with a vengeance. AIQ TradingExpert Pro has always been known for its ability to browse hundreds of daily price charts at blizzard speeds (one of the many unique features in the platform).
The fastest way to browse hundreds of charts end of day is back with a vengeance. AIQ TradingExpert Pro has always been known for its ability to browse hundreds of daily price charts at blizzard speeds (one of the many unique features in the platform).
Also includes historical data on US and Canadian stocks updated every night and Mutual Fund NAVs updated each night.
How do traders use this powerful data?
For the Chart Pattern Recognition traders this is the Ferrari of analysis tools. It’s simple to scan hundreds of charts to see the patterns emerging the same day it’s happening.
For traders who look for groups or sectors on the move, our intraday snapshot updates AIQ’s powerful groups and sectors too, so you can get ahead of a move in the market segments before the rest of the crowd.
For traders who want to place trades in the last hour of the trading day, downloading a snapshot in the last hour of trading day has almost the entire days action for your stocks, you can do your end of day analyze and place tomorrows trades today.
PLUS all the powerful features of AIQ TradingExpert Pro end of day including
AI-based Signals Uncover Hidden Trades – Award winning AI-based expert system screens for trading candidates that may have been missed by other systems, giving you an edge.
Time Saving Analysis with Chart Barometer – Our Indicator Barometer gives you an instant evaluation of the status of all indicators for each chart. Saving you time and allowing an easy to read analysis of any ticker.
Every Chart your way with Custom Layouts – Whether you prefer price bar, candlestick, or point and figure charts, we’ve got them. Plus, TradingExpert Pro delivers all the trendline and drawing tools that you expect in a top end package, including Fibonacci Studies, Gann Fans, and Regression Lines.
Time Saving Power! 200 Screening Reports – TradingExpert Pro automatically performs millions of computations and delivers instant access to one and two-page reports highlighting trading candidates for stocks, indexes, mutual funds, groups and sectors and more. Want to find tickers in a trend? We got it. Relative strength? Upside and downside at your fingertips. Volume Spikes, Persistence of Money Flow, Price Gap, Point and Figure Breakouts and many many more……All generated each day automatically…
Building a Trading System just got a Whole lot Easier – TradingExpert Pro provides an amazing way to design, test, and automate virtually any trading idea. It’s called the Expert Design Studio and is considered by traders to be the best tool of its kind. That’s because it combines a point-and-click interactive trading library with state-of-the-art back testing and gives you the ability to produce custom screening reports. PLUS our Pre-built strategies have been fine-tuned by our analysts to produce outstanding results. They include Growth, Divergence, Short Selling, Day Trading, and Bottom Fishing models, to name just a few.
Complete Array of Analysis Tools – TradingExpert Pro’s Proven Market Timing “too good to ignore.” Introduced in 1986, AIQ’s market timing system called the Crash of ‘87 and has called all major market moves since. Its multi-indicator, rule-based approach for determining market direction is time proven.
AND TradingExpert Pro also includes:
Professional Level Portfolio Management
Matchmaking Correlation tools
Automate Your Winning Systems with Portfolio Simulation Tools
Also includes historical data on US and Canadian stocks updated every night and Mutual Fund NAVs updated each night.
