Category Archives: Uncategorized

Our market AI down signal 4/18/19

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AI issued a market down signal of 99 on April 18, 2019. price Phase, our custom indicator that we use to confirm ratings turned down 4 days after the rating. Usually we like to see this indicator turn down closer to the rating, but the AI Expert system is often a little early.

The two significant rules rules that fired on this 99 down are below

“Intraday high prices of the market have increased to a 21 day high. Never the less, the advance/decline oscillator is negative. This unusual event is read as a very strong bearish signal that is often followed by an downward price movement. “

“Intraday high prices of the market have increased to a 21 day high. But the up/down volume oscillator if negative. In this uptrending market, this is taken as a very strong bearish signal that is often followed by downward price movements. “

The prior AI rating on the market was a 100 up on March 11, 2019 the market moved up over 850 points to the April down signal. Here are the AI rules that fired for this rating

“The market closing average has exceeded the 21 day exponentially smoothed average price. At the same time, accumulation is increasing in a strong down market. This is taken as a bullish signal that could be followed by a reverse in trend direction. “


“The Money Flow Indicator has reversed and is now advancing. In this downtrending market, this is taken as a weak bullish signal that could indicate an upward movement in the market averages. “


“Analysis of the rate of change of the exponentially smoothed average price suggests that in this strongly downtrending market an uptrend is starting to form. This is taken as a strong bullish signal that is usually followed by an upward movement in prices. “


“The new high/new low indicator has reversed to the upside. This is a reliable bullish signal that is often followed by an upward movement in prices. In this strong downtrending market a reverse in trend could start shortly. “

Ultimately any AI down signal is a note of caution in this market.

The V-Trade, Part 7: Technical Analysis—V-Wave Count

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Counting waves in price charts doesn’t have to be complex. In this seventh part of a multipart series of articles, we consider a method that simplifies the art of counting waves so you can make more successful trades.
The AIQ program has a built-in zigzag indicator that is similar to the one discussed in Sylvain Vervoort September 2018 S&C article, “The V-Trade, Part 7: Technical Analysis—V-Wave Count.” This indicator is demonstrated on an AIQ chart below.

Sample Chart

AIQ. This demonstrates the built-in zigzag indicator on an AIQ chart of SPY.

—Richard Denning
info@TradersEdge­Systems.com
for AIQ Systems

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The V-Trade, Part 6: Technical Analysis —Divergence Indicators

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AIQ EDS code based on Sylvain Vervoort’s August 2018 S&C article, “The V-Trade, Part 6: Technical Analysis—Divergence Indicators,”
This sixth part of a multipart series continues with a look at the stochastic RSI indicator (SRSI) to identify divergences… is available below

The code is shown here:

!The V-Trade Part 6 !Author: Sylvain Vervoort, TASC Feb 2019 
!Coded by: Richard Denning 
!www.TradersEdgeSystems.com 

!INPUTS: 
stochLen is 5. 
stochSum is 8. 
rsiW is 21. 

!RSI WILDER: 
U  is [close]-val([close],1). 
D  is val([close],1)-[close]. 
rsiLen is 2 * rsiW - 1. 
AvgU  is ExpAvg(iff(U>0,U,0),rsiLen). 
AvgD  is ExpAvg(iff(D>=0,D,0),rsiLen). 
rsi  is 100-(100/(1+(AvgU/AvgD))). 
hiRSI  is highresult(rsi,stochLen). 
lowRSI   is lowresult(rsi,stochLen). 
RSIlow  is rsi - lowRSI. 
RSIhilow  is hiRSI - lowRSI. ema1   is simpleavg(RSIlow,stochSum). 
ema2  is simpleavg(RSIhilow,stochSum). 
sveStochRSI is (ema1/(ema2 + 0.1))*100.

Figure 7 demonstrates the indicator on a chart of IBM.

Sample Chart

FIGURE 7: AIQ. The sveStochRSI is shown on a chart of IBM.

—Richard Denning
info@TradersEdgeSystems.com
for AIQ Systems

The V-Trade, Part 5: Technical Analysis—Moving Average Support & Resistance And Volatility Bands

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The AIQ EDS file for Sylvain Vervoort’s July 2018 article in S&C, “The V-Trade, Part 5: Technical Analysis—Moving Average Support & Resistance And Volatility Bands,” can be obtained on request via email to info@TradersEdgeSystems.com. The code is also available below.

!THE V-TRADE, PART 5
!Author: Sylvain Vervoort, TASC July 2018
!Coded by: Richard Denning 11/15/18
!www.TradersEdgeSystems,com

!ABBREVIATIONS:
C is [close].
C1 is valresult(C,1).
C2 is valresult(C,2).
C3 is valresult(C,3).
C4 is valresult(C,4).
C5 is valresult(C,5).
C6 is valresult(C,6).
C7 is valresult(C,7).
C8 is valresult(C,8).
C9 is valresult(C,9).
C10 is valresult(C,10).
C11 is valresult(C,11).
C12 is valresult(C,12).
C13 is valresult(C,13).
C14 is valresult(C,14).
C15 is valresult(C,15).
C16 is valresult(C,16).
C17 is valresult(C,17).
C18 is valresult(C,18).
C19 is valresult(C,19).
PD is {position days}.
PEP is {position entry price}.

!MOVING AVERAGES:
!SIMPLE MOVING AVERAGES:
smaLen1 is 50.
smaLen2 is 100.
smaLen3 is 200.
esaLen is 20.
esaBandPct is 10.

sma1 is simpleavg(C,smaLen1).
sma2 is simpleavg(C,smaLen2).
sma3 is simpleavg(C,smaLen3).

!LINEAR WEIGHTED 
LWMA is (C*20+C1*19+C2*18+C3*17+C4*16
      +C5*15+C6*14+C7*13+C8*12+C9*11
      +C10*10+C11*9+C12*8+C13*7+C14*6
      +C15*5+C16*4+C17*3+C18*2+C19*1)/210.

!ESA BANDS:
esa is expavg(C,esaLen).
upperESA is esa*(1+esaBandPct/100).
lowerESA is esa*(1-esaBandPct/100).

!BOLLINGER BANDS:
!SET PARAMETERS FOR BANDS:
 BBlen 	is 20.!Default is 20
 Mult1 	is 2. !Default is 2
 Mult2 	is 2. !Default is 2

Variance is Variance([close],BBlen).
StdDev is Sqrt(Variance).
SMA is simpleavg([close],BBlen).
UpperBB is SMA + StdDev *  Mult1.
LowerBB is SMA - StdDev *  Mult2.

ShowValues if 1.

Squeeze if upperESA > UpperBB and lowerESA < LowerBB.

SqIndicator is iff(Squeeze,1,iff(not Squeeze,0,-1)).

Buy if upperESA < UpperBB  and valrule(Squeeze,1)
	 and C > sma3 and C<LWMA. 
Sell if (PD>=3 and  LWMA < valresult(LWMA,1)) or C < PEP.

The EDS file contains the code for the various moving averages mentioned in the article as well as code for the Bollinger Bands and exponential bands. I did not code the SVE bands discussed by Vervoort in his article. I coded a system that uses the concept of a squeeze, as discussed in the article.

A squeeze occurs when the Bollinger Bands are inside the exponential bands. Figure 8 shows a sample trade from the system on NVDA.

Figure 9 shows the EDS summary report for a four-year backtest using the NASDAQ 100 list of stocks.

Sample Chart

FIGURE 8: AIQ. This shows a sample trade from the squeeze system.

Sample Chart

All Eyes on Energy

ETFS, indexes, jay kaeppel, Uncategorized

The energy sector – not just unloved, but pretty much reviled not that long ago – is suddenly everybody’s favorite sector.  And why not, what with crude oil rallying steadily in the last year and pulling pretty much everything energy related higher with it?

Anecdotally, everything I read seems to be on board with a continuation of the energy rally. And that may well prove to be the case. But at least for the moment I am waiting for some confirmation.

Two Concerns

The first – which I mentioned in this article – is the fact that the best time of year for energy is the February into early May period.  See Figure 1.

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Figure 1 – Ticker XLE Seasonality (www.Sentimentrader.com)

With that period just about past it is possible that the energy sector may at least pause for a while.

The second concern is that a lot of “things” in the energy sector are presently “bumping their head” against resistance.  Here is the point:

*This does not preclude a breakout and further run to higher ground.

*But until the breakout is confirmed a little bit of caution is in order.

I created an index comprised of a variety of energy related ETFs. As you can see in Figures 2 through 4 that index recently was turned away at a significant resistance level.

Figure 3 shows the same information on a weekly chart.

2a

Figure 3  – Jay’s Energy ETF Index – Weekly (Courtesy AIQ TradingExpert)

Figure 4 zooms in to view the action on a daily basis.

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Figure 4  – Jay’s Energy ETF Index – Daily (Courtesy AIQ TradingExpert)

As you can see in Figure 4, the index made an effort to break out above the January high then reversed and closed lower before declining a little bit more the next day.

The action displayed in the charts above may prove to be nothing more that “the pause that refreshes.” If price breaks out to the upside another bull leg may well ensue.  But note also in Figure 5 that ticker XLE – the broad-based SPDR Energy ETF – demonstrated the same type of hesitation as the ETF Index in the previous charts.

It too faces it’s own significant resistance levels as seen in Figure 5.

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Figure 5 – Ticker XLE faces resistance  (Courtesy AIQ TradingExpert)

Summary

Energies have showed great relative strength of late even in the context of a choppy stock market overall.   So there is no reason to believe that the rally can’t continue. But two things to watch for:

1. If energy related assets clear their recent resistance levels a powerful new upleg may ensue.

2. Until those resistance levels are pierced, a bit of caution is in order.  Energy has been the leading sector of late.  Any time the leading sector runs into trouble it pays to “keep an eye out” for trouble in the broader market.

No predictions one way or the other – just some encouragement to pay close attention at a potentially critical juncture.

Jay Kaeppel

Disclaimer:  The data presented herein were obtained from various third-party sources.  While I believe the data to be reliable, no representation is made as to, and no responsibility, warranty or liability is accepted for the accuracy or completeness of such information.  The information, opinions and ideas expressed herein are for informational and educational purposes only and do not constitute and should not be construed as investment advice, an advertisement or offering of investment advisory services, or an offer to sell or a solicitation to buy any security.