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Market Timing Update January 22, 2024

In this video I’ve covered the last 6 months of up and down Market ratings generated by the Artificial Intelligence system in our TradingExpert Pro analysis platform. #marketanalysis #markettiming #dowjones #ai #AIQsystems.


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Market Timing Signals June to October 2023

In this update, we’ll take a look at the current AI signals on the Dow Jones. For folks less familiar with our AI engine here’s a recap of what we do.

TradingExpert Pro uses two AI knowledge bases, one specifically designed to issue market timing signals and the other designed to give stock timing signals.

Each contains approximately 400 rules, but only a few “fire” on any given day.  In the language of expert systems, those rules that are found to be valid on a particular day are described as having “fired”.  

Rules can fire in opposite directions.  When this happens, the bullish and bearish rules fight it out.  It’s only when bullish rules dominate that the Expert Rating signal is bullish, or when bearish rules dominate that the Expert Rating signal is bearish.

The Expert Rating consists of two values. 

The upside rating is the value on the left and the downside rating is on the right.  Expert Ratings are based on a scale of 0 to 100.  An Expert Rating of 95 to 100 is a strong signal that the Stock or market may change direction.  

An Expert Rating below 90 is considered meaningless.  A low rating means that there is not enough consistency in the rules that are fired to translate to a signal.  The expert system has insufficient evidence to warrant a change from the last strong signal.

The Expert Desogn Studio file mentioned in this video is available to download here

Heiken Ashi Coming to AIQ

Coming this fall there will be some new features coming to AIQ, one feature is the Heiken-Ashi chart. Heikin-Ashi, which means “average bar” in Japanese, is a charting technique used to help traders identify and analyze market trends. It is particularly useful for making candlestick charts more readable and for providing clearer signals regarding market trends. Here are some key points and takeaways about Heikin-Ashi charts:

  1. Signal Interpretation:
    • Heikin-Ashi charts provide traders with specific signals to identify market trends. The five primary signals used in Heikin-Ashi charts are:
    • Doji Candle: This signal suggests market indecision.
    • Bullish Candle: Indicates a potential uptrend.
    • Bearish Candle: Suggests a potential downtrend.
    • Heikin-Ashi Bullish Continuation: Signals the continuation of an existing uptrend.
    • Heikin-Ashi Bearish Continuation: Signals the continuation of an existing downtrend.
  2. Trend Identification:
    • Heikin-Ashi charts are particularly useful for identifying trends and trend reversals.
    • Traders can use these charts to stay in trades as long as a trend persists and exit when the trend pauses or reverses.
  3. Calculation Method:
    • Heikin-Ashi candles are calculated differently from traditional candlesticks. They are based on the average price values of the open, high, low, and close prices for each period.
    • The formula for calculating Heikin-Ashi candles involves smoothing the price data to create a more consistent representation of price movement.

In summary, Heikin-Ashi charts are a valuable tool for traders to analyze trends and make trading decisions. They are especially effective for traders who prefer a smoother representation of price action and want clearer signals for trend identification. By understanding and correctly interpreting Heikin-Ashi charts, traders can improve their ability to predict market trends and make informed trading choices.

Here’s a comparison of the chart of NVDA. The first chart is a regular candlestick. The second chart is a Heiken-Ashi for NVDA for the same period. Note how the trends are far clearer in the Heiken-Ashi chart.

Here's a comparison of the chart of NVDA. The first chart is a regular candlestick.

NVDA regular candlestick chart through 10/16/23

The second chart is a Heiken-Ashi for NVDA for the same period. Note how the trends are far clearer in the Heiken-Ashi chart.

NVDA Heiken-Ashi chart, note how the trends are far clearer.

Heikin-Ashi charts exhibit several differences compared to traditional candlestick charts, as highlighted below:

  1. Smoother Look:
    • Heikin-Ashi charts have a smoother appearance because they are derived from an average of price movements over time. This averaging process reduces the noise and volatility seen in regular candlestick charts.
  2. Color Consistency:
    • In Heikin-Ashi charts, there is a tendency for the candles to remain predominantly red during downtrends and green during uptrends. This is because Heikin-Ashi candles take into account the average price movement, making them more consistent in color. In contrast, traditional candlesticks may alternate colors even when the price is dominantly moving in one direction.
  3. Price Scale Variation:
    • In a regular candlestick chart, the current price displayed corresponds to the actual market price of the asset, and it usually matches the closing price of the candlestick (or the current price if the bar hasn’t closed yet).
    • With Heikin-Ashi, the current price on the candle may not necessarily match the real-time market trading price. This is because Heikin-Ashi uses an average calculation that can lag behind the actual market price.
    • To address this discrepancy, AIQ shows only the actual open high low, and close in the control panel of a chart for Heiken Ashi rather than the Heiken Ashi value.

These differences make Heikin-Ashi charts a valuable tool for traders who prefer a more visually consistent representation of price trends and are willing to accept a slight lag in price information in exchange for smoother and clearer signals. Traditional candlestick charts, on the other hand, provide more immediate and precise price information but can be noisier and less consistent in appearance. The choice between the two chart types depends on a trader’s preferences and trading strategy.

AIQ Expert Ratings How Best to Use Them

Date & Time July 24, 2023 05:00 PM Eastern

An hour-long session with Steve Hill, CEO of AIQ Systems. It’s one of the longest-running AI-based systems in the world. Like any AI it isn’t perfect. In this session, Steve will cover leveraging these ratings for effective trading decisions.

As every investor knows, in stock market trading, timing is everything. AIQ is the world leader in producing artificial intelligence-based expert systems for stock market timing for use on personal computers.

Briefly, an expert system is a decision-making system that contains the knowledge of experts on a particular subject, and uses this knowledge to make decisions and solve problems. To create an expert system, a knowledge engineer researches experts in a particular field and distills their knowledge and insight into a series of rules. By following the rules, the expert system can analyze a problem and solve it.

AIQ TradingExpert Pro is programmed with the knowledge and insight of respected technical analysts, experts who have developed technical analysis indicators and systems for the last 50 years. The up/down timing signals issued by TradingExpert Pro are based on this knowledge. Since TradingExpert Pro’s timing signals are generated on a scientific basis, free of bias or emotion, you get a disciplined, objective approach to stock market timing.

The timing signals produced by the AIQ expert system are in the form of Expert Ratings Behind each Expert Rating is a set of rules that combine the sound principles of technical analysis with the experience of market professionals. Since no single technical indicator works all the time, using indicators in combination increases their reliability. For example, a rule is developed that combines the readings of two or more indicators. This rule is then more reliable than the reading of a single indicator.

Within TradingExpert Pro are two knowledge bases, one specifically designed to issue market timing signals and the other designed to issue stock timing signals. Each TradingExpert Pro knowledge base contains approximately 400 rules, but only a few “fire” on any given day. In the language of expert systems, those rules that are found to be valid on a particular day are described as having “fired”.

Rules can fire in opposite directions. When this happens, the bullish and bearish rules fight it out. It’s only when bullish rules dominate that the Expert Rating signal is bullish, or when bearish rules dominate that the Expert Rating signal is bearish.