Timing The Market
Timing The Market
SPY ▲ +1.24%|
QQQ ▲ +1.87%|
VIX ▼ 16.4|
NYSE A/D ▲ 2,184 / 892|
ISM PMI 52.7 EXPANDING|
10-YR YIELD 4.28%|
GOLD ▲ $3,240|
DIA ▲ +0.92%|
AAII BULL-BEAR +10.5|
McCLELLAN OSC ▲ +68.4|
SPY ▲ +1.24%|
QQQ ▲ +1.87%|
VIX ▼ 16.4|
NYSE A/D ▲ 2,184 / 892|
ISM PMI 52.7 EXPANDING|
10-YR YIELD 4.28%|
GOLD ▲ $3,240|
DIA ▲ +0.92%|
AAII BULL-BEAR +10.5|
McCLELLAN OSC ▲ +68.4|
New from AIQ Systems
TIMING
THE
MARKET
A Systematic Approach to Trading
Stock Market Indices
Stop reacting to headlines. Start reading the market's own signals — breadth, momentum, macro, and sentiment — with a proven, rules-based framework built over 30 years of professional trading education.
The Problem
MOST TRADERS
WATCH THE WRONG THINGS
They only watch the headline index
The S&P 500 can make new highs while most stocks are already falling. Cap-weighted indices mask deterioration until it's too late.
They react to news, not data
Financial media creates urgency and emotion. Systematic market timers use breadth, momentum, and macro data — not headlines.
They have no positioning framework
Without a rules-based system, decisions become discretionary guesswork. One bad call in a bear market can erase years of gains.
They ignore the macro environment
Fed policy, yield curves, and ISM data tell you which side of the market to be on. Most traders never read these signals at all.
"Feelings don't pay the bills. Rules and data do. Every concept in this book is designed to be objective, testable, and repeatable."— Steve Hill, Timing the Market
What's Inside
13 CHAPTERS.
ONE COMPLETE SYSTEM.
From NYSE breadth to Federal Reserve policy to the ETFs that profit from every market condition — everything you need to time the market with confidence.
01
Foundation
Understanding Market Timing
The weight-of-evidence approach, why breadth is the market's true heart, and what markets we track.
02
Breadth
NYSE & NASDAQ Breadth Analysis
A-D Line, McClellan Oscillator, Summation Index, New Highs/Lows, TRIN — the complete breadth toolkit.
03
Indices
Reading the Major Indices
DJIA, S&P 500, NASDAQ 100 — moving averages, Golden/Death Cross, and intermarket relationships.
04
Software
AIQ Market Timing System
Expert Rating signals, AIQ breadth tools, sector group analysis, and daily timing scans in TradingExpert Pro.
05
Strategies
Other Timing Platforms & Methods
Zweig Breadth Thrust, Coppock Curve, Wyckoff, IBD Follow-Through Day, and the 10-month MA strategy.
06
ETFs
Market ETFs — Bull & Bear
SPY, QQQ, IWM, UPRO, TQQQ, SH, SQQQ and all 11 SPDR sector ETFs — when to use each one.
07
Indicators
Technical Indicators for Timing
MACD divergence, RSI, Stochastics, Bollinger Bands, and OBV — all applied at the index level.
08
Macro
Macro Catalysts & the Economic Calendar
Fed policy, NFP, CPI, GDP, ISM PMI, and the yield curve — and exactly how each moves markets.
09
Earnings
Earnings Season & Fundamentals
Forward estimates, the earnings calendar as a timing filter, and geopolitical catalysts.
10
Sentiment
Sentiment — Fear & Greed
AAII survey, Put/Call ratio, VIX as a sentiment tool, and CNN Fear & Greed — the contrarian edge.
11
System
Your Complete Timing System
The 4-Pillar framework, Traffic Light scoring rules, and weekly review process — the full decision engine.
12
Execution
From Analysis to Action
Daily routine, ETF entry and exit, stop-loss rules, position sizing by market state, and trade journaling.
13
Case Studies
Historical Case Studies
The 2022 bear market — every signal, every positioning decision, annotated in real time.
The Framework
THE 4-PILLAR
DECISION ENGINE
Pillar One
Price Trend
Are major indices above their 200-day MAs? Golden Cross or Death Cross? Higher highs or lower lows?
Pillar Two
Breadth
Is the NYSE A-D Line confirming price highs? McClellan Oscillator positive? New highs dominating new lows?
Pillar Three
Momentum
AIQ Expert Rating on major ETFs? MACD divergence developing? What is the VIX signalling about fear levels?
Pillar Four
Macro Environment
Fed tightening or easing? Yield curve normal or inverted? ISM PMI above 50? Earnings estimates rising?
Traffic Light Scoring System
Maximum bullish — full exposure, leveraged ETFs
Bullish — standard long equity (SPY, QQQ)
Neutral — defensive sectors, reduced exposure
Bearish — partial inverse ETF allocation
Maximum bearish — full defensive / short
About the Author
STEVE HILL
What Readers Say
REAL TRADERS.
REAL RESULTS.
★★★★★
"The 4-Pillar framework alone is worth ten times the price of the book. I now have a structured process for every market condition instead of second-guessing myself every week."
Michael R.
Retired Fund Manager, Texas
★★★★★
"I've read every major book on technical analysis. This is the first one that actually tells you how to read the whole market — not just individual charts. The macro chapter alone changed how I trade."
Catherine W.
Private Investor, California
★★★★★
"Steve's approach is exactly what I needed — rule-based, systematic, and built around real data. I used the breadth divergence signals to stay out of the 2022 bear market and it saved my portfolio."
David T.
AIQ TradingExpert Pro User, Florida
Complete the Series
ALSO BY STEVE HILL
ChartSmart
The Complete Technical Indicators Guide — 29 indicators with real chart examples. The essential reference for any serious technical trader.
The MACD Divergence Guide
A comprehensive guide to spotting and trading MACD divergence — one of the highest-probability reversal signals in technical analysis.
Timing the Market ← You Are Here
The complete system for reading market breadth, macro catalysts, and technical signals — and acting on them with confidence.
Inside the Book
REAL CHARTS.
REAL SIGNALS.
Every chapter in Timing the Market includes real charts with annotated signals — breadth divergences, Expert Rating triggers, Zweig Breadth Thrusts, VIX extremes, and MACD divergence at the index level.
Chapter 2 — Breadth Analysis
NYSE A-D Line vs. S&P 500
Long-term chart highlighting historic divergences at major market tops — the most powerful early warning system in breadth analysis.
Chapter 1 — Foundation
S&P 500 vs NYSE Breadth Divergence
The A-D Line diverging down while price makes new highs — the signal that preceded the August 2022 sell-off. Breadth saw it first.
Chapter 2
McClellan Oscillator
AD Osc vs DJIA — overbought/oversold zones, divergence signals, and zero-line crossovers.
Chapter 3
S&P 500 Monthly MAs
10-month and 12-month EMAs with major bull and bear phases identified — the trend-following backbone.
Chapter 3
Golden & Death Cross
50-day crosses above/below the 200-day MA — one of the most watched technical signals in all of equities.
Chapter 4 — AIQ System
AIQ Expert Rating on SPY
ER ≥95 buy signal on SPY with Phase confirmation — the AIQ system synthesising multiple inputs into a single, actionable number.
Chapter 4 — AIQ System
Stochastic + VIX Spike
SPY Stochastic oversold at the exact moment VIX spikes — the highest-probability buy signal combination available to a systematic market timer.
Chapter 5
Zweig Breadth Thrust
April 2025 signal — breadth rocketing from below 40% to above 61.5% in ten days. Historically, one of the most reliable buy signals.
Chapter 7
MACD Divergence — Weekly S&P
Positive and negative MACD divergences annotated at major lows and tops on the S&P 500 weekly chart.
Chapter 13 — Case Study
2022 Bear Market — SPY
The full 2022 bear with counter-trend rallies of 8–15% annotated — and why the 4-Pillar framework stayed Red throughout.
"The single biggest mistake I see traders make when analysing the market is to watch only the headline index. Breadth analysis cuts through this deception. When we measure how many stocks are advancing versus declining, we get a much more democratic and honest picture of the market's internal health."
— Steve Hill, Timing the Market — Chapter 1
Get Your Copy
STOP REACTING.
START READING.
Get the complete system for timing the market — 13 chapters, 19 annotated chart examples, and a framework you can apply every single week.
Regular Price $99
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Common Questions
FAQ
Do I need AIQ TradingExpert Pro to use this book?
No. While Chapter 4 covers AIQ in detail, the majority of the book — breadth analysis, macro catalysts, ETF strategies, sentiment tools, and the 4-Pillar framework — applies to any platform or charting software. The indicators and ETFs discussed are available on every major platform including ThinkorSwim, TradeStation, TradingView, and MetaStock.
Is this suitable for beginners?
This book is designed for serious traders and investors who already understand the basics of technical analysis and want to graduate to a systematic, market-level perspective. If you are brand new to trading, we recommend starting with ChartSmart first to build your indicator foundation.
Does this work in the current market environment?
The framework is specifically designed to adapt to every market condition — bull, bear, and everything in between. The 4-Pillar Traffic Light system gives you a clear positioning decision regardless of whether the market is rallying, correcting, or in full bear mode. The case study in Chapter 13 covers the 2022 bear market in full detail.
How is this different from other market timing books?
Most timing books focus on a single indicator or methodology. This book integrates breadth, technical momentum, macro catalysts, and sentiment into a single, scored decision framework with clear positioning rules. It also covers the specific ETFs — including leveraged and inverse — needed to act on each signal, which most books omit entirely.
What format is the book available in?
Timing the Market is currently available as a digital PDF download, optimised for both screen reading and printing.
Is there a money-back guarantee?
No. This is a digital book and refunds are not possible.
