January 15, 2015: Market Minute: Into 2015

This post from Donald Dony (AIQ seminar speaker). 

2015 marks the year with a very strong upside pedigree. Since
1895, every year that ended in a “5” has seen the S&P 500
advance. Only in 2005, did the U.S. index post its first negative return of
-0.61% (Chart 1). 

That being said, the early stage of this year has the
set-up for a sharp correction in the S&P 500.

In the January 3, 2015: Market Minute titled “World markets continue to
separate from the U.S.”, we stated that the MSCI World (ex-USA) Index was
progressing lower while the U.S. index forges a new high (Chart 2).
As global markets can trend in different paths for a short time, they will
ultimately regroup and move again as one.

We expect the tailwinds of the steadily declining world markets to catch the
U.S. index in Q1.

Nevertheless, with a supporting background of performance in years that end in
“5” and the entrance into a secular Stock Cycle in 2012, we
anticipate the S&P 500 will advance to new highs by year-end.

Bottom line: The separation of global markets from the U.S. index strongly
suggests a short term correction is coming in Q1. However, the underlining
tailwinds points to favorable conditions for the S&P 500 by the second
half of 2015.

Our 2015 target remains at 2250 for the S&P 500.

Donald W. Dony, FCSI, CFTe, MFTA
D. W. Dony and Associates Inc.
4973 Old West Saanich Rd.
Victoria, BC  V9E 2B2
Ph. 250-479-9463
Fax. 250-479-9417


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