2015 marks the year with a very strong upside pedigree. Since
1895, every year that ended in a “5” has seen the S&P 500
advance. Only in 2005, did the U.S. index post its first negative return of
-0.61% (Chart 1).
set-up for a sharp correction in the S&P 500.
In the January 3, 2015: Market Minute titled “World markets continue to
separate from the U.S.”, we stated that the MSCI World (ex-USA) Index was
progressing lower while the U.S. index forges a new high (Chart 2).
As global markets can trend in different paths for a short time, they will
ultimately regroup and move again as one.
We expect the tailwinds of the steadily declining world markets to catch the
U.S. index in Q1.
Nevertheless, with a supporting background of performance in years that end in
“5” and the entrance into a secular Stock Cycle in 2012, we
anticipate the S&P 500 will advance to new highs by year-end.
Bottom line: The separation of global markets from the U.S. index strongly
suggests a short term correction is coming in Q1. However, the underlining
tailwinds points to favorable conditions for the S&P 500 by the second
half of 2015.
Our 2015 target remains at 2250 for the S&P 500.
Donald W. Dony, FCSI, CFTe, MFTA
D. W. Dony and Associates Inc.
4973 Old West Saanich Rd.
Victoria, BC V9E 2B2
Ph. 250-479-9463
Fax. 250-479-9417
www.technicalspeculator.com