by Hank Swiencinski, AIQ
TradingExpert Pro client for over 20 years, founder of ‘The Professor’s One
Minute Guide to Stock Management’.
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The Dow fell 129 points, closing at 13,880. Volume on the NYSE was relatively low on the decline, coming in at only 94 percent of its 10 day average. There were 128 new highs and 11 new lows.
So now we wait. Yesterday’s decline was expected, but now we need to be patient to see how the correction will develop. Chances are that the markets will rally today, forming some type of retracement wave. I wouldn’t get too excited about trying to figure out which wave this is in the wave count. That’s because there is no way to tell.
All we know for sure is that the Dean’s List remains positive and all of the PT indicators are positive. The only cockpit indicator that is negative now is the Coach, our Money Flow indicator.
Also, all four of our breadth indicators are currently negative. The A-D oscillator came in with a reading of -73 last night, telling us that most stocks on the NYSE have started short term declines. In addition, the Summation Index, Hi-Lo Oscillator and the Up-Down oscillator are also negative. So some type of correction is underway. Once these indicators start to turn positive again, they will get my attention.
The question of where the correction will stop and where to re-enter a few trades is now on the table. Hmmm? What to do, what to do?
OK, here’s what I’m looking at. First of all, as I said before, I’m not worried about wave count at this point. That will come later. Right now there is only one wave to count. Yesterday’s decline.
My breadth indicators are telling me that the Dow has started to correct. But the Dean’s List and all of the PT indicators remain positive. Also, the 2-period RSI Wilder is not in oversold territory yet (only -35) so I can’t be looking for Eating Cake.
And IF a correction has started, I know that it should have multiple legs. As a minimum, a wave 2 needs to have three legs. So it’s likely that yesterday’s decline was only the first leg down of any corrective sequence. There needs to be at least one more down wave if it’s a wave 2, and several more if it’s a wave 4.
The other thing I know is that each one of the corrective waves should take the shape of an a-b-c pattern. Yesterday’s decline was almost straight down. So IF we retrace today, the move could be a small ‘b’ wave to be followed by another decline for wave ‘c’. If this happened, I would label it Wave A.
If you’re confused, don’t be. My point in discussing the above is not to confuse, but to help you understand that we will likely see all sorts of choppy trading during the next 1-2 weeks as the market forms the small a-b-c waves. Just be patient and realize that the market needs to do this to move higher. BTW, IF a wave 4 is forming, we’ll see even more a-b-c corrections develop, because we know that most of the time, wave 4s form triangles. And triangles have 5 waves.
Anyhow, be patient. I’m going to watch to see IF we rally today. IF we do, I will be looking at my volume and breadth indicators to measure the strength of the rally. If they lag, chances are the rally is a small ‘b’ wave that would set-up another decline later this week.
That will be the first place where I will look to re-enter a few trades…on the second decline, especially if volume dries up.
BTW, speaking of volume, it was a good sign that yesterday’s decline took place on relatively light volume. Low volume declines after the market hits a target are always nice to see. They tell me that the rally is not over, and to expect more upside once the market takes a breather.
I should also mention that there is a small possibility that the rally from early January is not over, and yesterday’s decline was the wave 4 correction of the first wave up. I don’t believe that it was, but there is a very small possibility that it could be. If this is the case, then the rally that I expect today should exceed Friday’s highs. But don’t get too excited…IF this happens it would only increase the odds that we’ll see another downside correction start next week.
That’s what I’m doing,
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