Today’s webinar by Richard Muller, Reuters Equity Analyst, senior instructor at The Trading Prism, and long time AIQ TradingExpert Pro user has been recorded. Richard covered the Expert Ratings on the US markets before moving onto group/sector rotation using AIQ Reports. His stock selection process was geared toward possible options trades. You can view this video at
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Big Picture Market Review FREE webinar with Richard Muller, Reuters Equity Analyst
Join
Richard Muller, for a live webinar on the current market and a look at some
interesting stocks setting up technically.
Richard Muller, for a live webinar on the current market and a look at some
interesting stocks setting up technically.
Wednesday
11th January at 7.00pm London time, 2.00 pm eastern
11th January at 7.00pm London time, 2.00 pm eastern
Richard’s investment
trading career started out in emerging markets in 1995, up to 2000, where he did
extensive equity fundamental analysis, as well as macro market analysis while
based in South Africa.
Over
the last 10 years, while based in the UK, he has built up extensive global
equity research and macro market analysis as both a buy side equity analyst, as
well as a global equities proprietary trader. Previous
positions included sell side equity research analyst with JP Morgan Chase and
HSBC. Buy side analyst with Reabourne, part of Close Brothers, and as
proprietary trader with Van Der Moolen Securities ltd. Richard
also held a position as CEO of ETI Investment, an investment management firm.
the last 10 years, while based in the UK, he has built up extensive global
equity research and macro market analysis as both a buy side equity analyst, as
well as a global equities proprietary trader. Previous
positions included sell side equity research analyst with JP Morgan Chase and
HSBC. Buy side analyst with Reabourne, part of Close Brothers, and as
proprietary trader with Van Der Moolen Securities ltd. Richard
also held a position as CEO of ETI Investment, an investment management firm.
Currently
Richard Muller is a global equities analyst with Thomson Reuters, where he
delivers investment ideas on the Reuters Insider financial TV channel.
Richard Muller is a global equities analyst with Thomson Reuters, where he
delivers investment ideas on the Reuters Insider financial TV channel.
Richard
qualified as a Chartered Management Accountant, and holds a Masters of Science
degree in investments, MSc ISIB.
qualified as a Chartered Management Accountant, and holds a Masters of Science
degree in investments, MSc ISIB.
Richard’s
Reuters TV shows offer detailed analysis of the equity markets. Richard is a long time user of AIQ TradingExpert Pro.
Reuters TV shows offer detailed analysis of the equity markets. Richard is a long time user of AIQ TradingExpert Pro.
AIQ: REVERSING MACD
The AIQ code for the reverse MACD functions and indicators described in Johnny Dough’s article in the Decmber issue of Stocks & Commodities, “Reversing MACD,” is provided at the following website: www.TradersEdgeSystems.com/traderstips.htm, and is also shown below.
In the figure blow, I show a chart of Green Mountain Coffee Inc. with the two PMAC indicators and the MACD indicators. The cyan line is the PMACzero, which is the price tomorrow that would have to be attained for the MACD to equal zero. This indicator has wide swings because sometimes a big move in price is needed to bring the MACD back to zero. The purple line shows the PMACeq indicator, which shows tomorrow’s price that would make MACD the same as it was today. It stays close to the current price. The lower panel shows the MACD (white) and the MACD signal (yellow) indicators.
AIQ SYSTEMS, REVERSING MACD. Here is an example of the PMACzero (cyan) and PMACeq (purple) indicators on a chart of Green Mountain Coffee Inc. with MACD (white) and MACD signal line (yellow) indicators (lower panel).
!REVERSING MACD
!Author: Johnny Dough, TASC January 2012
!Coded by: Richard Denning 11/9/2011
!www.TradersEdgeSystems.com
!Author: Johnny Dough, TASC January 2012
!Coded by: Richard Denning 11/9/2011
!www.TradersEdgeSystems.com
!ABBREVIATIONS:
C is [close].
H is [high].
L is [low].
O is [open].
!INPUTS:
mfast is 12.
mslow is 26.
msig is 9.
!UDFs:
emaFast is expavg(C,mfast).
emaSlow is expavg(C,mslow).
MACD is emaFast – emaSlow.
sigMACD is expavg(MACD,msig).
len_X is mfast.
len_Y is mslow.
lvl is sigMACD.
alphaX is 2 / (1 + len_X).
alphaY is 2 / (1 + len_Y).
!PLOT THE FOLLOWING AS SINGLE LINE INDICATOR ON PRICE CHART:
PMACDeq is (expavg(C,len_X)*alphaX
-expavg(C,len_Y)*alphaY)/(alphaX-alphaY).
one_alphaX is 1 – alphaX.
one_alphaY is 1 – alphaY.
PMACDlvl is (lvl+expavg(C,len_Y)*one_alphaY
– expavg(C,len_X)*one_alphaX)/(alphaX-alphaY).
!PLOT THE FOLLOWING AS SINGLE LINE INDICATOR ON UPPER CHART:
PMACDzero is (0+expavg(C,len_Y)*one_alphaY
– expavg(C,len_X)*one_alphaX)/(alphaX-alphaY).
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Swing Trading: Volume Perspective
Basic economics dictates the
premise of supply and demand and their ramifications on price. This theory
holds that when demand exceeds supply price will appreciate, and when supply
overshadows demand asset prices will fall. Indeed this holds true when markets
rise and fall as it reflects the urgency of one side of the market to trade as
opposed to the other. Yet every trade has a counter party; a buyer and a
seller. On the face of it, this clearly indicates that demand and supply are
equal, yet that price is rarely static reports to a further dynamic lending
itself to momentum, inertia and urgency.
premise of supply and demand and their ramifications on price. This theory
holds that when demand exceeds supply price will appreciate, and when supply
overshadows demand asset prices will fall. Indeed this holds true when markets
rise and fall as it reflects the urgency of one side of the market to trade as
opposed to the other. Yet every trade has a counter party; a buyer and a
seller. On the face of it, this clearly indicates that demand and supply are
equal, yet that price is rarely static reports to a further dynamic lending
itself to momentum, inertia and urgency.
Markets are able to
fluctuate somewhat freely on light volume as prices are pushed around by one or
two big orders on a quiet trading day. Yet when trading volumes show a
significant increase from the norm, this indicates substantial market interest.
Here, buyers and sellers of varying points of view are increasingly interested
in divesting each other of their respective positions.
fluctuate somewhat freely on light volume as prices are pushed around by one or
two big orders on a quiet trading day. Yet when trading volumes show a
significant increase from the norm, this indicates substantial market interest.
Here, buyers and sellers of varying points of view are increasingly interested
in divesting each other of their respective positions.
While 80% of all trading
activity has been found to be stop loss oriented, this alarming fact points to
the variety of motivations that market participants adopt to investment
decisions. Some are long term some short term; some are taking profits, some
losses. Amid the confusion, one thing can be certain. When trading volume
experiences a sharp increase – a dramatic market shift is imminent as the price
has motivated substantial participants to become involved in decision making.
At the end of a prevailing trend, volume will increase markedly, and so the
market confirms this by participation. Rarely would this occur mid-trend as by
definition a trend needs urgency of either supply or demand to outweigh one the
in order to maintain its course.
activity has been found to be stop loss oriented, this alarming fact points to
the variety of motivations that market participants adopt to investment
decisions. Some are long term some short term; some are taking profits, some
losses. Amid the confusion, one thing can be certain. When trading volume
experiences a sharp increase – a dramatic market shift is imminent as the price
has motivated substantial participants to become involved in decision making.
At the end of a prevailing trend, volume will increase markedly, and so the
market confirms this by participation. Rarely would this occur mid-trend as by
definition a trend needs urgency of either supply or demand to outweigh one the
in order to maintain its course.
Proponents of other indications
such as technical analysis’ support and resistance, momentum’s MACD index, and
mathematics’ Fibonacci numbers will all seek confirmation with an increase in
volume prior to extending a signal. Primarily as the market needs to be
supporting or rejecting a certain price, the absence of volume can hardly
suggest that is the case. Indeed dwindling volumes are more an indication that
the trend has met a natural end and that a retracement is imminent. A
retraction in trading volume indicates that momentum is slowing and will find
much profit taking entering the market, which will itself perpetuate movement
back to true value.
such as technical analysis’ support and resistance, momentum’s MACD index, and
mathematics’ Fibonacci numbers will all seek confirmation with an increase in
volume prior to extending a signal. Primarily as the market needs to be
supporting or rejecting a certain price, the absence of volume can hardly
suggest that is the case. Indeed dwindling volumes are more an indication that
the trend has met a natural end and that a retracement is imminent. A
retraction in trading volume indicates that momentum is slowing and will find
much profit taking entering the market, which will itself perpetuate movement
back to true value.
In this sense, volume is
rarely an indicator applied in isolation and is keenly attuned to other
indicators and in particular, momentum. Still volume must be adjudged with
relative comparison as some markets have typical volumes that would astound
others. Volume ought never to be ignored as it indicates the bastion of trading
activity – participation.
rarely an indicator applied in isolation and is keenly attuned to other
indicators and in particular, momentum. Still volume must be adjudged with
relative comparison as some markets have typical volumes that would astound
others. Volume ought never to be ignored as it indicates the bastion of trading
activity – participation.