How Five Market Timing Signals Captured 4,500 Points While Avoiding Two Major Declines
One of the most common questions we hear from traders is: “Can a systematic approach really identify market turning points in real-time?” The answer is yes—when you have the right tools and a disciplined, rule-based methodology.
Let me show you exactly how AIQ Market Timing navigated a volatile 2.5-month period from October 2025 through January 2026, capturing three significant rallies totaling 4,500 points while protecting capital during two major reversals totaling over 3,000 points of decline.
The Setup: Multiple Bullish Confirmations (October 20, 2025)
On October 20th, AIQ Market Timing issued a 98 UP signal at 46,707 on the Dow Jones Industrial Average. But this wasn’t just a single indicator flashing green—it was a confluence of five critical rules firing simultaneously:
Rule #1: Trend Status Confirmation
Trend Status changed to a weak upward trend
This indicated an upward trend was starting that could continue
Classification: Moderate bullish signal
Rule #2: Exponentially Smoothed A/D Line
The smoothed advance/decline line turned positive
Key factor: The UD volume oscillator and A/D oscillator were ALREADY positive
This alignment is viewed as bullish, often preceding upward price movement
Rule #3: Up/Down Volume Oscillator
The UD volume oscillator turned positive
Confirmation: A/D oscillator and smoothed A/D line were already positive
This convergence signaled institutional buying was building
Rule #4: Advance/Decline Oscillator
The A/D oscillator turned positive
Supporting indicators: UD volume and smoothed A/D line already positive
Multiple breadth measures confirming the move
Rule #5: Volume Accumulation Alignment
A/D oscillator turned positive with volume accumulation already positive
In a weak upward market, this signals prices could continue rising
Professional money was accumulating positions
The Result: +1,333 Points in 8 Days
The market moved from 46,707 on October 21st to 48,040 on October 29th—a gain of 1,333 points (+2.85%) in just eight trading days.
This is the power of waiting for multiple confirming indicators rather than jumping on single signals. The system identified strong internal market momentum that wasn’t yet obvious to casual observers.
The Top: System Catches the Reversal (October 30, 2025)
Just one day after the market high, on October 30th at 47,659, AIQ Market Timing 98 issued a DOWN signal. The system caught the top within just 11 points of the absolute high (48,040 vs. 47,659).
Two Critical Bearish Rules Fired:
Rule #1: Breadth Deterioration
The exponentially smoothed A/D line turned negative
Warning sign: UD volume oscillator and A/D oscillator were already negative
This indicated institutional distribution was underway
Rule #2: Volume Accumulation Breakdown
Volume accumulation turned negative
The A/D oscillator was already negative
In a downtrending market, this bearish signal often precedes price declines
Initial Decline: -1,164 Points in 7 Days
From the October 31st level of 47,659, the market dropped to 46,495 by November 7th—a decline of 1,164 points (-2.44%) in seven trading days.
Traders following these signals would have been long for the +2.85% rally and either flat or profitably short for the -2.44% decline.
The Confirmation: Second Down Signal (November 4, 2025)
On November 4th, while the market was still declining, AIQ Market Timing 98 issued a second DOWN signal, reinforcing the bearish outlook. This is where systematic trading truly shines—when multiple signals confirm the trend in real-time.
Three Additional Bearish Rules Fired:
Rule #1: Trend Status Reversal
Trend Status changed to a weak downward trend
This confirmed the downward trend was likely to continue
Classification: Moderate bearish signal
Rule #2: Stochastic and Volume Divergence
Volume accumulation percentage was decreasing
The 21-day stochastic moved below the 80% line
In a downtrending market: Strong bearish signal
This combination often precedes significant downward price movement
Rule #3: UD Volume Oscillator Breakdown
The UD volume oscillator turned negative
Critical context: Smoothed A/D line and A/D oscillator were already negative
This confirmed selling pressure was intensifying
Signal #3: Back to Bullish (November 10, 2025)
On November 10th at 47,368, AIQ Market Timing issued an UP signal (97), indicating the correction had run its course and a new upward move was beginning.
Four Powerful Bullish Rules Fired:
Rule #1: Exponentially Smoothed A/D Line
Turned positive with UD volume oscillator and A/D oscillator already positive
This alignment indicated strong bullish internal momentum building
Rule #2: Advance/Decline Oscillator Confirmation
Turned positive with UD volume oscillator and smoothed A/D line already positive
Multiple breadth measures confirming the new uptrend
Rule #3: Volume Accumulation Alignment
A/D oscillator turned positive with volume accumulation already positive
In a sideways market, this signals prices could begin upward movement
Professional buying was returning
Rule #4: New High/New Low Reversal
The NH/NL indicator reversed to the upside
Classification: Reliable bullish signal
Often followed by upward price movement
In a sideways market, an uptrend could start shortly
The Rally: +1,063 Points in 3 Days
The market surged from 47,384 on November 11th to 48,431 on November 13th—a gain of 1,040 points (+2.22%) in just three trading days.
Signal #4: The Top Again (November 13, 2025)
At the market high of 48,233, AIQ Market Timing issued a DOWN signal (100), once again catching the reversal with precision.
Five Bearish Rules Fired:
Rule #1: Stochastic and Price Phase Weakness
21-day stochastic declined below the 80% line
Price phase indicator also decreasing
In the uptrending market: Weak bearish signal indicating possible near-term decline
Rule #2: Smoothed A/D Line Breakdown
Turned negative with UD volume and A/D oscillator already negative
Clear sign of breadth deterioration
Rule #3: UD Volume Oscillator Reversal
Turned negative with smoothed A/D line and A/D oscillator already negative
Institutional selling was intensifying
Rule #4: A/D Oscillator Breakdown
Turned negative with UD volume and smoothed A/D line already negative
All breadth measures aligned bearishly
Rule #5: New High/New Low Reversal
The NH/NL indicator reversed to the downside
Classification: Reliable bearish signal
Often followed by downward price movement
In an uptrending market, a trend reversal could occur
The Decline: -1,500 Points in 7 Days
From November 14th’s open of 47222, the market plunged to 45,728 on November 20th—a drop of nearly 1500 points (3.16%) in five trading days.
This was a significant correction that caught many traders off guard. But AIQ Market Timing identified it precisely at the top.
Signal #5: The Current Rally (November 18, 2025 – Present)
On November 18th at 46,091, AIQ Market Timing issued an UP signal (96), catching the bottom of the correction and positioning traders for what would become a powerful sustained rally.
The Rally Continues: over 3000 Points and Counting
From the November 19th entry at 46,138, the market has surged to 49,616 as of January 13, 2026—a gain of over 3,300 points (+7.0%) that is STILL RUNNING.
This ongoing rally has already lasted 45 days and shows the power of staying with a trend when the system confirms the move.
The Complete Picture: What This Teaches Us
Over a 2.5-month period from October 21, 2025 to January 9, 2026, AIQ Market Timing issued five signals:
The Numbers Are Staggering
Total gains captured: over 5,000 points across three rallies Total declines avoided: over 3,000 points across two corrections Current position: Still long in a rally that has gained 7.0%
Compare this to buy-and-hold over the same period:
Started: 46,707 (Oct 21)
Current: 49,504 (Jan 9)
Buy-and-hold gain: +2,797 points (+5.99%)
This sequence demonstrates several critical principles of successful systematic trading:
1. Confirmation Over Single Indicators
Every up signal had multiple rules firing together—not weak, isolated signals but powerful confluences showing aligned market internals. Signal #1 had five rules, Signal #3 had four rules including the reliable NH/NL indicator.
2. Speed Matters
The system caught reversals with remarkable precision: one day after the October high, right at the November 13th high. Manual observation would have missed these turning points.
3. Internal Strength vs. Price Action
The breadth indicators (A/D measures, volume accumulation, UD volume, NH/NL) detected shifts in market character before they became obvious in price alone.
4. Consistency Across Different Market Conditions
This wasn’t a lucky streak. The system worked in:
Weak upward trends (October)
Weak downward trends (early November)
Sideways markets (mid-November)
Strong sustained uptrends (late November – January)
5. Multiple Cycles Compound Returns
Notice how the system didn’t just catch ONE move—it navigated FIVE distinct market phases. This is where systematic trading truly shines: the ability to stay on the right side of the market through multiple cycles.
6. Reliable Indicators Add Conviction
The New High/New Low indicator appeared in both Signal #3 (bullish reversal) and Signal #4 (bearish reversal), classified as “reliable” both times. When these high-probability signals appear, they deserve attention. Adding in the Phase indicator, confirmation was present for all the signals and is considered a valid confirmation within +/- 3 days of the signal.
7. Both Sides of the Market
This wasn’t just about catching rallies. The system protected capital by identifying when conditions changed, allowing traders to exit longs, stay in cash, or even profit from declines totaling 3,669 points.
Multiply this advantage over weeks, months, and years, and you begin to understand why systematic, rule-based trading provides such a significant edge.
The Bottom Line
AIQ Market Timing isn’t about predictions or gut feelings. It’s about:
Objective rules that fire based on market internals
Multiple confirming indicators that reduce false signals
Real-time alerts that keep you informed as conditions change
Historical validation proving the methodology works across different market environments
Consistent performance across multiple market cycles
Are you ready to trade with this level of systematic precision? $1 trial available
Learn more about AIQ Market Timing 98 and other professional-grade technical analysis tools at AIQ Systems.
Past performance does not guarantee future results. All trading involves risk. The examples shown are for educational purposes and represent actual historical signals from the AIQ Market Timing system.
AIQ TradingExpert Pro’s market-timing system fired a strong confirmed sell signal on October 16, 2025, marking a notable shift in market momentum.
This follows two unconfirmed buy signals earlier in the week and a prior confirmed down signal on October 7, which correctly preceded a 1100-point market drop over the next three sessions.
While the mid-month buy attempts suggested possible support, the AI-based phase model never confirmed a trend reversal — and as of now, the bears are clearly regaining control.
⚙️ What Triggered the October 16 Sell Signal
AIQ’s expert system combines multiple technical indicators to identify major turning points.
On October 16, several key bearish rules fired simultaneously — a rare and powerful confluence:
Price Phase, Volume Accumulation %, and Advance/Decline Oscillator are All Decreasing
In a sideways market, this cluster is viewed as a short-term bearish setup, often preceding a decline in prices.
Exponentially Smoothed Advance/Decline Line Turns Negative
When combined with negative readings in both the Up/Down Volume Oscillator and Advance/Decline Oscillator, this signals broad internal market weakness and precedes downward pressure.
Up/Down Volume Oscillator Turns Negative
Reinforcing bearish momentum — this condition historically confirms that buyers are losing control of volume leadership.
Advance/Decline Oscillator Turns Negative
When all three internal breadth measures align to the downside, AIQ interprets this as a strong probability of a continued short-term decline.
New High/New Low Indicator Reverses to the Downside
This is one of the system’s most reliable bearish signals. In a sideways market, it often marks the early stage of a new downtrend.
📉 Recent Market History
October 7, 2025: Confirmed down signal. Followed by a 110-point market drop over the next three days. Driven by internal breadth weakness and a reversal in the New High/New Low indicator.
October 13–14: Two short-lived buy signals appeared but were not confirmed by phase change — indicating limited upside conviction.
October 16, 2025:Confirmed strong sell signal (100 strength) — multiple bearish rules aligned across price, volume, and breadth.
🔎 AIQ’s Interpretation
In the current sideways-to-rolling-over market, the system views this cluster of signals as a warning that a new short-term downtrend may be underway.
While confirmation from price action is still developing, internal data — especially breadth and volume metrics — show deterioration beneath the surface.
Traders should remain cautious, tighten stops on long positions, and prepare for potential follow-through to the downside.
🧩 Key Takeaway
AIQ TradingExpert Pro’s expert system is once again highlighting the power of combining breadth, volume, and price phase indicators to identify turning points before they appear in the indexes.
The October 16 cluster of bearish rules echoes the early October pattern — suggesting that weakness beneath the surface is deepening, and the path of least resistance may remain downward in the near term.
The visual representation below of the AI system on 10-16-25 on the market shows a majority bearish sentiment in the internal market indicators, whereas the Access Plot (all 500 of the SP 500 stocks measured by technical indicators) shows a mixed sentiment.
