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Time Tested Trading Tips… September 12.

Steve Palmquist.Author of ‘The Timely Trades Letter’. ‘How to Take Money from the Markets’, and Money-Making Candlestick Patterns.
Serious traders will go through a learning curve as they study market behavior and how their trading systems function. They will have times when they run into situations that have not been experienced or researched and they may be unsure of what to do. This is normal, it is the price of admission to the trading business. My general rule is that when I am unsure I close the position. It is hard to go broke taking profits so my focus is on needing a clear reason to stay in a position, not wondering whether or not I should get out. If there is no clear reason to hold I take profits and move on to another trade. When trading I am not holding out for the perfect trade, there is no such thing. Trading is about managing risks and I use the current market conditions to determine how many trades to be taking and the appropriate position sizing to use. Setups with more room to run are prioritized above ones with little room to run. Setups triggering on stronger volume compared to the previous days volume are prioritized above ones with lower trigger day volume. Setups with shallower pullbacks are prioritized above ones with deeper pullbacks. I then look at the setups that are triggering and start from the top of the prioritized list and work down until I run out of setups or fill the number of positions I am interested in.
The successful trader has a tool box with a variety of trading tools for use in different market conditions. The trader, like the carpenter, must go beyond just acquiring the tools. Traders must understand which tool to use for a specific task, and have a clear understanding of how the tool works, and what can and cannot be done with it. I have extensively tested several trading systems, the results of this testing on specific trading trading tools are outlined in ‘How to Take Money from the Markets’, and Money-Making Candlestick Patterns. The testing process helps us understand how stocks usually behave after forming a specific pattern such as being outside the Bollinger Bands, showing strong distribution or accumulation, or pulling back or retracing during a trend. Understanding what a stock is most likely to do forms the beginning of a trading strategy. Trading without this information is taking unknown risks.

Time Tested Trading TIps, August 29…

Steve Palmquist.Author of ‘The Timely Trades Letter’. ‘How to Take Money from the Markets’, and Money-Making Candlestick Patterns. At a recent trading conference several traders were talking about exit strategies at lunch and one noted that he ‘liked to hold positions for about a week’. When asked why, he had no reason for the decision; it just ‘felt right’ to him. Trading on tips, emotions, or what ‘just feels right’ is unlikely to produce good long term results. Trading should be based on the careful analysis and testing of each trading system that a trader uses. Testing does not eliminate risk or guarantee results, but it can help to give a good idea of how a system has actually performed. In trading range market environments I generally exit a position if the stock approaches the upper Bollinger Band or a horizontal resistance point. I do not want to hold out for the last dime, I want to be taking profits as the stock approaches resistance. In a trading range market it is generally better to get out too early than too late. It is tough to go broke taking profits. By definition the market usually retraces at resistance. If the market usually retraces from resistance then I want to be out of the position before it does and use the funds for another trade that is just triggering and starting its run. Eventually almost all resistance areas are broken, but if the stock usually retraces at resistance then I want to go with the odds and be positioned to profit if the stock does the normal thing and retraces. If it does retrace I have my profits and can use them in a new trade. If the stock breaks above resistance I still have my profits and can still take another trade. From a risk management standpoint I am better off to have taken the profits. I am always trying to position myself to profit if the market and my positions do the normal thing. When something unusual happens I may loose a few bucks, but by definition unusual things do not happen often. One of the keys to trading is learning what usually happens in a given situation and then being positioned to profit if it does. The successful trader has a tool box with a variety of trading tools for use in different market conditions. The trader, like the carpenter, must go beyond just acquiring the tools. Traders must understand which tool to use for a specific task, and have a clear understanding of how the tool works, and what can and cannot be done with it. I have extensively tested several trading systems, the results of this testing on specific trading trading tools are outlined in ‘How to Take Money from the Markets’, and Money-Making Candlestick Patterns. The testing process helps us understand how stocks usually behave after forming a specific pattern such as being outside the Bollinger Bands, showing strong distribution or accumulation, or pulling back or retracing during a trend. Understanding what a stock is most likely to do forms the beginning of a trading strategy. Trading without this information is taking unknown risks.

AIQ: THREE BLACK CROWS PATTERN

The Fibonacci time zones discussed in “Automated
Techniques For Intraday Traders
” by Andrew Coles in this issue (August 2011 Stocks & Commodities) can be
implemented using the Fibonacci time zone chart tool in AIQ with no additional programming required.

Thus, I am instead providing code for the “Three Black Crows” candle pattern
that is discussed in Thomas Bulkowski’s June 2011 article, “Top
10 Candles That Work
.”

Coding candlestick patterns requires quite a bit of interpretation, since
these patterns are described in relative terms like a “tall” candle or “closes
in the lower portion of the bar.” Depending on the interpretation given to these
relative terms, we can get different results. In my code set, shown below, I
provide inputs that allow for some of the adjustments. The three black crows
pattern has the following rules:

  • Must have three tall candles in a row
  • Pattern occurs in an uptrend and the first candle is the highest high
  • The last two candles must open in the real body range of the prior candle
  • All three must close near the low
  • The last two candles must have lows that are lower than the prior low.

“Tall” means that the bars’ high–low range is greater than the 10-day average
range that occurs just prior to the start of the pattern. An uptrend is defined
as a linear regression slope of the closes greater than zero. “Closing near the
low” is based on how many candle zones are input, which are then used to divide
the range of the bar into zones. “Closing near the low” means that the close
must fall in the lowest zone. In addition, the author suggests testing in a bull
market. Bull market is defined here as when the 200-bar moving average
of the Standard & Poor’s 500 is greater than it was 10 bars ago. A bear
market
occurs whenever it is not a bull market.

I tested the pattern by entering at the close on the day the pattern is
complete and exiting at the close six days later. This provides a test with five
overnights and five full bars held after the pattern completes. I used the
Russell 3000 list of stocks and tested from 1/15/1970 to 6/13/2011. In the table
in Figure 8, I show the comparative results of bull, bear, and combined bull and
bear. It appears that this pattern works in both bull and bear markets, but
there may not be enough signals to build a trading system from just this pattern
alone.

This table shows the metrics for the three
black crows candle pattern for the
test period
1/15/1970 to 6/13/2011 using the Russell 3000 list of stocks.

The AIQ code is shown here and the Eds file for this technique can be downloaded from www.TradersEdgeSystems.com/traderstips.htm.

AIQ code for three black crows pattern

!TOP 10 CANDLES THAT WORK: THREE BLACK CROWS 
!Author: Thomas N. Bulkowski, TASC June 2011
!Coded by: Richard Denning 6/14/11

!INPUTS:
RangeLen  is 10.
CandleZones  is 4.
HHLen   is 10.
UpTrendLen  is 10.

! ABBREVIATIONS:
C  is [close].
C1 is valresult(C,1).
C2 is valresult(C,2).
H  is [high].
L  is [low].
L1 is valresult(L,1).
O  is [open].
O1 is valresult(O,1).
OSD  is offSetToDate(month(),day(),year()).

!BULL / BEAR MARKET DETERMINATION:
SPXc is TickerUDF("SPX",C).
Bull if simpleavg(C,200) > simpleavg(C,200,10).
Bear if not Bull.

!FUNCTIONS AND RULES FOR THREE BLACK CROWS CANDLE PATTERN:
Range is H - L.
HHoffset is scanany(H = ∧highresult(H,HHLen),HHLen) then OSD.
AvgRng is simpleavg(Range,RangeLen,∧HHoffset).
LowerZoneC if C < L + (Range * 1/CandleZones).
Tall if Range > AvgRng.
BlackCrow1 if Tall 
 and LowerZoneC 
 and slope2(C,UpTrendLen) > 0 
 and  H = highresult(H,HHLen).
BlackCrow2 if Tall 
 and LowerZoneC 
 and O <= O1 
 and O >= C1.
ThreeBlackCrows if valrule(BlackCrow1,2) 
 and countof(BlackCrow2,2)=2 
 and countof(L < L1,2)=2.
Bull3BlackCrows if Bull and ThreeBlackCrows.
Bear3BlackCrows if Bear and ThreeBlackCrows.

—Richard Denning
info@TradersEdgeSystems.com
for
AIQ Systems


Time Tested Trading Tips, July 17…

Steve Palmquist.Author of ‘The Timely Trades Letter’. ‘How to Take Money from the Markets’, and Money-Making Candlestick Patterns.
The market has three basic modes. It can be going up, down, or sideways. Over time the markets movement is made up of combinations of these three different behaviors. None of these behaviors lasts for long, the market is always switching between them. This is one of the keys to trading. Traders need to recognize that the market moves between these three modes and have the ability to recognize then the change has arrived and be able to switch to trading tools suitable for the new environment. This is a process I call Market Adaptive Trading. The market will not adapt to us. It does not care what we want or think. Therefor we must adapt to it.
If I know how a trading system, or trading tool as I refer to them, performs in each of the three different market conditions; then I can watch the market to determine what type of condition we are currently experiencing and then use the tools that have shown good results in that type of market condition. This is the process of Market Adaptive Trading. It takes some practice to quickly recognize the current market conditions, but this is a lot easier that trying to predict where the market is going.
No one has consistently predicted where the market is going over the long run. Remember all those empty suits on the TV news shows telling us everything was fine just before the 2008 crash. They did the same thing before the 2000 crash. Not even (or perhaps especially) the experts can successfully predict market direction consistently. However you can learn to look at a chart and tell if the market is going up, down, or sideways. And that is actionable information, as opposed to someone’s guess of where the market is going to be in three months or a year.
The successful trader has a tool box with a variety of trading tools for use in different market conditions. The trader, like the carpenter, must go beyond just acquiring the tools. Traders must understand which tool to use for a specific task, and have a clear understanding of how the tool works, and what can and cannot be done with it. I have extensively tested several trading systems, the results of this testing on specific trading trading tools are outlined in ‘How to Take Money from the Markets’, and Money-Making Candlestick Patterns. The testing process helps us understand how stocks usually behave after forming a specific pattern such as being outside the Bollinger Bands, showing strong distribution or accumulation, or pulling back or retracing during a trend. Understanding what a stock is most likely to do forms the beginning of a trading strategy. Trading without this information is taking unknown risks.

Adding VIX as an indicator to AIQ Charts

As discussed in the free webinar on Thursday July 14, 2011. Recording is available at http://prowebinars.adobeconnect.com/p6efx0lc7kf/

To add the VIX with a 10-day average of the VIX to an AIQ Chart follow these instructions

  1. Click on this link below to download the EDS file required, save it to c:wintes32EDS Strategies folder http://aiqsystems.com/VIX_as_an_indicator.EDS
  2. Open AIQ Charts and chart the ticker SPY end of day.
  3. From the menu in Charts, click on Chart, Settings, Indicator Library, EDS Indicators
  4. In the Custom Indicators click on Add
  5. In Look in: locate c:wintes32EDS Strategies folder and select the file VIX_as_an_indicator.EDS. Click Open.
  6. In Plot Type, select Histogram with Plotted Line, click Next.
  7. In Histogram with Line Indicator, for Description I use VIX and 10-day. UDF to Plot: select Close_VIX from the pull down. UDF for Line: select VIX_10day from the pull down. Click Finish.
  8. Click on Done in the Custom Indicators screen. The indicator will be at the very bottom in your Indicator Control Panel, click on the indicator to add it to the SPY chart. Note: custom indicators do not have barometers