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Something Old, Something New A new way to trade moneyflow

June 4, 2015Uncategorizedadmin

Something Old, Something New

A new way to trade moneyflow

join us June 11. 2015 at 4:30pm eastern for

this exclusive 45 minute webinar with course manual

Hank Swiencinski, aka ‘The Professor’, has been teaching trading at the University of North Florida since the spring of 2009. His courses have been the subject of much acclaim in Jacksonville’s news media, the Florida Times Union, and two major network TV stations. He is the co-author of The Professor’s One Minute Guide to Stock Management, a highly informative book that addresses his straight forward, easy to learn methodology.

He has conducted numerous seminars and webinars on trading for AIQ Systems and is currently the principal contributor to AIQ’s OneMinuteStock web site.

To date, Hank has developed and presented six webinars for AIQ Systems. Last year in ‘Trading with the Tide‘, Hank showed his students how to use breadth indicator to predict major market turns. Students who attended the webinar were able to use The Tide to catch the 1,590 point move in the Dow that started on 20 October 2014.

Then in late February, he once again showed students how he uses his “Sticks in the Sand” strategy to tell when conditions are turning favorable for various sectors. Students who attended this webinar were alerted to the favorable conditions for trading energy during late March-April. If you do not understand ‘Trading with the Tide‘, or how to use “Sticks in the Sand”, you’re missing the boat!

The results are simply amazing!

During the past few months, Hank has been researching yet another new strategy for trading the markets.

The Professor is becoming increasingly concerned with the ‘churning’ that is apparent in the current market

A market that trades in a very narrow zone for months on end is usually in a distribution phase, which is often associated with a Major Top. But because not all stocks top at the same time, some have already topped and are now starting to move lower. On the other hand, even when the overall market is moving lower, there will always be several stocks and sectors that will buck the tide. It will be EXTREMELY important in the months ahead to know which sectors and stocks will be declining and which ones will move higher.

This new strategy supplements The Professor’s primary strategy for trading stocks and ETFS. It also allows students to enter specific high probability trades before the overall market starts to turn.

On average, trades placed with this new strategy allow traders to enter both long and short positions in stocks anywhere from 3 to 10 days before the overall market turns

This strategy can also be used with the shorter term bars to generate significant profits in non-trending or topping markets very similar to what is occurring now.

In the past, when the Professor’s indicators tell him that a Major Market turn is approaching, he conducts a seminar for his students at UNF. During his most recent seminar, he showed students the results of research he has been conducting to identify specific times enter stocks that his trend algorithms have been highlighting. The results have been fantastic.

Hank will show you an entirely new way to use two indicators that you probably have ignored in the past

When used to trigger buy or sell signals from his Lists of stocks, they are extremely effective. Once you see how effective these indicators are when used with the Honor Roll, you will NEVER trade without them again. That’s why Hank calls this webinar ‘Something Old, Something New.’

Added Bonus

As an added bonus, The Professor will also review how he uses The Tide and his ‘Sticks in the Sand’ to trade specific sector ETFs when the seasonal environment is friendly to trade these sectors.

Using this approach, he was able to successfully trade energy related stocks and ETFs early in 2014, then again in 2015.

There was no uncertainty about any of this

The ‘Sticks in the Sand’ tells you when you should be looking to trade various sectors including energy, healthcare, retail, gold, bonds and currencies. If you trade any of these sectors, you need to know how to identify when the environment is favorable for these sectors and how to enter specific trades. But now with the two indicators of ‘Something Old, Something New’, you will know which specific stocks to trade when the environment is friendly.

It doesn’t get any better than this!

With the Professor’s Methodology, you don’t get a list of 400+ stocks or ETFs to buy like you do with most other newsletters. Large lists are of limited value, especially when you only have a limited amount of money to invest. No, you want to know which stocks and ETFs are the best ones to invest in.

When you use a newsletter, the information is usually over a month to six weeks old. It’s stale by the time you get it. The Professor bakes his own Lists fresh every day! In addition to showing you how to determine which specific stocks and ETFs are the strongest, he also shows you which ones are ready to move.

And you’ll learn how to do this by yourself, without listening to the opinions of biased analysts on CNBC or in financial publications

Also, IF you use a Financial Advisor, you will be able to use the information in this webinar to monitor what your advisor doing. Is he putting you into the right mix of equities, bonds, commodities, or real estate? Is he doing it at the right time, when the environment is favorable? Or is he just watching your portfolio go up and down with the market? Watching is not managing. You pay your financial advisor to manage. And if he’s not putting you into the strongest stocks and ETFs at the right time, maybe it’s time for you to make a change.

With The Professor’s key indicators, like The Tide and Dean’s List, you will know when the conditions are favorable or unfavorable for equities, bonds, and commodities. Then, if your advisor’s view of these markets is different from what you see for yourself, you will be able to discuss your information with him.

Remember what happened in the market crashes of 2002 and 2007-2008?

Most financial advisors stood by watching the markets and the value of your portfolio decline.

Do NOT let this happen again

Includes seminar handouts and access to the recording

Amazing discount

ONLY $99

or call 1-800-332-2999 or 775-832-2798

More about The Professor

For the last few years, traders and investors in Jacksonville, Florida have had legendary trader Hank Swiencinski, the professor, all to themselves. No longer. The Professor, as he is known by his clients, has already presented his ‘The Professor’s One Minute Guide to Stock Management’ to a selected audience in the spring.

He is the co-author of The Professor’s One Minute Guide to Stock Management, a highly informative book that addresses his straight forward, easy to learn methodology. He has conducted numerous seminars and webinars on trading for AIQ Systems and is currently the principal contributor to AIQ’s OneMinuteStock web site.

The success stories and testimonial we’ve received from clients, show how effective and profitable the ‘Professor’s’ strategies really are. Whether you’re already trading or relatively new to investing, this is a once in a life time chance to learn one of the best investment techniques in the World…

Includes seminar handouts and access to the recording

Amazing discount

ONLY $99

or call 1-800-332-2999 or 775-832-2798

Updating My Seasonal Trends Trading Strategy (Part 1)

June 4, 2015Uncategorizedadmin

In my book “Seasonal Stock Market Trends” I pulled a variety of well known (and not so well known) seasonal stock market trends (what else?) into a composite index referred to as the Known Trends Index”, or KTI for short. Sure, if I was a marketing guy I would’ve opted for something more along the lines of “Jay’s Hidden Order in the Stock Market Revealed” Index. Alas, the marketing gene apparently skips a generation in the Kaeppel Family.

No matter. The gist is this:

The KTI is comprised of 13 indicators (including The Election Cycle, Trading Days of The Month, Sell In May and Go Away, the Summer Rally, the 40-Week Cycle, the 212-Week Cycle, Trading around Holidays and 6 others, each with specific bullish, bearish or neutral criteria) and has historically ranged from a high reading of +8 to a low reading of -1.

Using the KTI to Trade

The more seasonal trends that are favorable at a given point in time the higher the KTI and vice versa. The theory is that higher KTI readings suggest more favorable conditions for the stock market than do lower KTI readings.

Does this theory hold true in reality? Take a look at Figures 1 and 2 and decide for yourself.

Figure 1 displays the growth of $1,000 invested in the Dow Jones Industrials Average (price only, no dividends included) only on those days when the KTI reads +5 or higher, starting on December 1st, 1933.

Figure 1 – Growth of $1,000 invested in Dow Industrials only when KTI >= +5; 12/1/1933 through 5/22/2015

Compare and contrast the results displayed in Figure 1 to the results that appear in Figure 2. Figure 2 displays the growth of $1,000 invested in the Dow Jones Industrials Average (price only, no dividends included) only on those days when the KTI reads +1 or less, starting on December 1st, 1933.

Figure 2 – Growth of $1,000 invested in Dow Industrials only when KTI <= +1; 12/1/1933 through 5/22/2015

For the record:

*$1,000 invested in the Dow only when the KTI >= +5 grew +5,470%

*$1,000 invested in the Dow only when the KTI <= +1 declined (-96.1%)

This dichotomy in performance is what we quantitative analyst types refer to in our highly technical terms as “statistically significant.”

Under the category of “What have you done for me lately”, Figure 3 displays the results generated from holding the Dow Industrials when KTI >= +5 versus KTI <= +1 since 12/31/1994.

Figure 4 – Growth of $1,000 invested in Dow Industrials when KTI>= +5 (red line) versus $1,000 invested in Dow Industrials when KTI<= +1 (blue line); 12/31/1994-5/22/2015

One problem with all of this information (going back to 1934) is that:

*The days for which the KTI >=5 represents only 14.65% of all trading days

*The days for which the KTI <=1 represents only 21.56% of all trading days

So what about all the other days? Figure 3 displays the performance of the Dow during all days since 12/1/1933 when the KTI was between +2 and +4.

Figure 3 – Growth of $1,000 invested in Dow Industrials only when KTI = +2 or +3 or +4; 12/1/1933 through 5/22/2015

*The good news is that the net gain was +8,500%. Which is what we quantitative analyst types refer to in our highly technical terms as “not too shabby.”

*The bad news is that investing only on days when the KTI read +2, +3 or +4 witnessed a drawdown of -38% in 1938 and a massive drawdown of -57% in 2008 (i.e., “Shabby”).

So how to put it altogether and actually trade?

Simple. Stay tuned for Part 2.

Jay Kaeppel

Chief Market Analyst at JayOnTheMarkets.com and AIQ TradingExpert Pro (http://www.aiq.com) client

http://jayonthemarkets.com/

Basket Trading Using A Directed Acyclic Graph

May 2, 2015Uncategorizedadmin

The AIQ code based on Dave Cline’s article in this issue, “Basket Trading Using A Directed Acyclic Graph,” is provided at www.TradersEdgeSystems.com/traderstips.htm, and is also shown here. Acyclic graphs is a means of using a type of network graph called a directed acyclic graph or DAG in choosing a basket of securities for trading a continuously rebalanced portfolio.

!BASKET TRADING USING A DIRECTED ACYCLIC GRAPH

!Author: Dave Cline, TASC April 2015

!Coded by: Richard Denning 2/10/2015

!www.TradersEdgeSystems.com



!Len is the number of lookback days.

!L1 is the first ticker in the list that you want to compare your list to.

!L2 is the second ticker in the list that you want to compare your list to etc

!You must create a list of 20 or less symbols of interest then type in the same 

!symbols in the same alpha order as your list. If there are less than 20 just use " "

!but do not delete the input as there must be L1 through L20 inputs defined:



!INPUTS: 

Len is 250.

L1 is "ADBE".

L2 is "ADI".

L3 is "ADP".

L4 is "AKAM".

L5 is "ALTR".

L6 is "AMAT".

L7 is "FOX".

L8 is "INTU".

L9 is "LLTC".

L10 is "LMCA".

L11 is "LRCX".

L12 is "LVNTA".

L13 is "NTAP".

L14 is "NVDA".

L15 is "NXPI".

L16 is "PAYX".

L17 is "SIRI".

L18 is "TRIP".

L19 is "TXN".

L20 is "VIAB".



!CODE TO CALCULATE PEARSONS r AND r SQUARED:

ChgOC is (([close]-[open])/[open]) * 100.

SumY is Sum(ChgOC, Len).

SumYsq is Sum(ChgOC*ChgOC, Len).

SSy is SumYsq - ( (SumY * SumY) / Len ).



ChgOCL1 is TickerUDF(L1, ChgOC).

SumXsq1 is Sum(ChgOCL1*ChgOCL1, Len).

SumX1 is Sum(ChgOCL1, Len).

SumXY1 is Sum(ChgOC*ChgOCL1, Len).

SP1 is SumXY1 - ( (SumX1 * SumY) / Len ).

SSx1 is SumXsq1 - ( (SumX1 * SumX1) / Len ).

PearR1 is SP1/SQRT(SSx1*SSy).

PearRsq1 is ( PearR1 * PearR1 ).



ChgOCL2 is TickerUDF(L2, ChgOC).

SumXsq2 is Sum(ChgOCL2*ChgOCL2, Len).

SumX2 is Sum(ChgOCL2, Len).

SumXY2 is Sum(ChgOC*ChgOCL2, Len).

SP2 is SumXY2 - ( (SumX2 * SumY) / Len ).

SSx2 is SumXsq2 - ( (SumX2 * SumX2) / Len ).

PearR2 is SP2/SQRT(SSx2*SSy).

PearRsq2 is ( PearR2 * PearR2 ).



ChgOCL3 is TickerUDF(L3, ChgOC).

SumXsq3 is Sum(ChgOCL3*ChgOCL3, Len).

SumX3 is Sum(ChgOCL3, Len).

SumXY3 is Sum(ChgOC*ChgOCL3, Len).

SP3 is SumXY3 - ( (SumX3 * SumY) / Len ).

SSx3 is SumXsq3 - ( (SumX3 * SumX3) / Len ).

PearR3 is SP3/SQRT(SSx3*SSy).

PearRsq3 is ( PearR3 * PearR3 ).



ChgOCL4 is TickerUDF(L4, ChgOC).

SumXsq4 is Sum(ChgOCL4*ChgOCL4, Len).

SumX4 is Sum(ChgOCL4, Len).

SumXY4 is Sum(ChgOC*ChgOCL4, Len).

SP4 is SumXY4 - ( (SumX4 * SumY) / Len ).

SSx4 is SumXsq4 - ( (SumX4 * SumX4) / Len ).

PearR4 is SP4/SQRT(SSx4*SSy).

PearRsq4 is ( PearR4 * PearR4 ).



ChgOCL5 is TickerUDF(L5, ChgOC).

SumXsq5 is Sum(ChgOCL5*ChgOCL5, Len).

SumX5 is Sum(ChgOCL5, Len).

SumXY5 is Sum(ChgOC*ChgOCL5, Len).

SP5 is SumXY5 - ( (SumX5 * SumY) / Len ).



—Richard Denning
info@TradersEdgeSystems.com
for AIQ Systems

Biotech – Buying Opportunity or the End-of-the-Line?

May 2, 2015Uncategorizedadmin

If you want to talk “performance”, it’s pretty tough to beat that of biotech stocks in recent years. A quick glance at Figure 1 – a monthly bar chart for ticker IBB, the iShares biotech ETF – is sure to leave many investors shaking their heads wondering “how the heck did I not get in on that?”

Figure 1 – Ticker IBB Monthly (Courtesy: AIQ TradingExpert)

It doesn’t get much better than that.

Are the Good Times Really Over for Biotech?

Still, perspective is always in the eye of the beholder (no wait, that’s “beauty”. Well, you get the idea). A glance at Figure 2 – a daily bar chart for IBB – clearly shows a stock that has lost momentum and seemingly “run out of steam”.

Figure 2 – Ticker IBB Daily with MACD and Rate-of-Change indicators (Courtesy AIQ TradingExpert)

So is this finally “The Top” for biotechs? Well, it’s possible. But as a good little trend-follower, there is at least one other way to view recent biotech action.

A Buying Opportunity in Biotech?

Figure 3 displays ticker IBB along with my RSI Everything Indicator and a 200-day moving average. RSI Everything readings of -32 or less have highlighted a number of good buying opportunities in the recent past.

Figure 3 – Ticker IBB with 200-day moving average and RSI Everything readings under -32 (Courtesy AIQ TradingExpert)

Sometimes the -32 reading has been a little “early” and a further decline followed. But on many occasions the -32 reading proved to be an excellent time to buy biotech.

Factoring in Seasonalilty

Biotech stocks (with performance measured using Fidelity Select Biotech, ticker FBIOX) have showed a tendency to perform well between the end of the 5th trading day of April and the 4th trading day of June.

The growth of $1,000 invested in ticker FBIOX only during this period since 1989 appears in Figure 4.

Figure 4 – Growth of $1,000 invested in ticker FBIOX from April Trading Day 5 through June Trading Day 4 (1989-present)

What To Do, What To Do?

The clear take away from the information shown so far is simple: there is no way to know for sure if the recent top in biotech was “the Top” or if the recent decline is a buying opportunity. But given the recent history of IBB and the slightly favorable seasonal trend, there is a way to play for a trader who at the very least feels that biotech is not about to collapse”

Figures 5 and 6 are generated from www.OptionsAnalysis.com and display a strategy known as a “bull put spread” using options on ticker IBB. Two important points should be made up front:

1. This is not a “Recommendation”. It is intended to serve only as an example of “one way to play the game.”

2. Options on ticker IBB have some seriously wide bid/ask spreads. This trade assumes that, a) a limit order was used and managed to get filled, b) at the midpoint of bid/ask spread for the two options used in the trade.

*This trade involves selling the June 315 put and buying the June 305 put.

*The profit potential for a 1-lot is $150 (or 17.65%)

*The maximum risk is $850

*As this is written ticker IBB is trading at $344.81 and the breakeven price for this position is $313.50.

Figure 5 – IBB June 315-305 Bull Put Spread (Courtesy: www.OptionsAnalysis.com)

Figure 6 – IBB June 315-305 Bull Put Spread (Courtesy: www.OptionsAnalysis.com)

While the maximum risk on this trade is $850, a close look at Figure 6 reveals that a trader could presumably cut is or her loss at a much lower amount. For example, if a trader decided to exit the position if IBB falls under say $330, the expected loss would be somewhere between $75 and $225, depending on whether the break occurs later or sooner.

A trader could also consider giving biotech a “wider berth” and hold on unless and until IBB drops below the 315 strike price. In that case the risk would be roughly $400 (Reminder for Traders: these are decisions that should be made BEFORE you enter a trade, not during the “heat of battle”).

Summary

The reason that markets “fluctuate” is because different investors and traders can view the exact same situation in different ways. As we have seen here, it is possible to make a good case that the long, large advance in biotech stocks has finally run out of steam. It is also possible to make a good case that the recent decline in biotech stocks is just another buying opportunity.

We have also seen that it can be possible – via the use of options – to make money as long as biotech stocks don’t completely come apart.

At least, that’s how I see it. How about you?

Jay Kaeppel
Chief Market Analyst at JayOnTheMarkets.com and AIQ TradingExpert Pro (http://www.aiq.com) client
http://jayonthemarkets.com/

REMINDER: Important Changes to Your AIQ TradingExpert Pro Service

April 21, 2015Uncategorizedadmin

At the end of April 2015 Track Data will no
longer be providing real-time data to clients

End of day data for the AIQ Data Retrieval will
be continuing and you will be able to update your AIQ data files as normal. AIQ
is now actively programming to Interactive Data Corporation as the new real
time provider. Once we are satisfied with the new interface we will be offering
delayed, real-time and end of day service into TradingExpert Pro with
Interactive Data Corporation. The anticipated release date for the
new provider is May 31, 2015.

In the interim period we are going to
continue offering full support for your TradingExpert Pro service with end of day data at $74/mo.

There is a browser-based delayed data and end of
day charting program on the AIQ web site that you can utilize during this
transition period. The charting program has a wealth of technical indicators
and is available FREE of charge during the transition at http://aiqsystems.com/browsercharts.html.
Real time data is
also available starting at $9.95 from https://www.tradingview.com/gopro/

A short video on this important change can be found at www.aiqsystems.com

More information at www.aiqsystems.com/continueaiq.html

Frequently
asked questions are at www.aiqsystems.com/FAQtransition.html

Have
questions? Please contact Barbara at 800-332-2999, 775-832-2798 or
email sales@aiqsystems.com

We appreciate your
business and look forward to serving your trading and investing needs going
forward.