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Market Commentary: Bearish Signals Emerging

The market’s short-term outlook is tilting bearish as the 21-day stochastic drops below the 80% threshold and the price phase indicator trends downward. In a sideways environment, this suggests a potential pullback in price action.

Further reinforcing this caution, the price phase indicator, volume accumulation percentage, and advance/decline oscillator are all in decline. In a range-bound market, this trio of weakening indicators points to a possible short-term downturn.

Adding to the downside risk, volume distribution is rising despite a still-positive price phase indicator—a classic bearish non-confirmation. Moreover, the new high/new low indicator has reversed lower, a historically reliable warning that a downtrend may soon take hold. If momentum doesn’t shift, sellers could gain control in the near term.

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On 1-14-25 and 1-15-25 we had 2 powerful AI-generated up signals on the Dow Jones. The market rallied strongly after these signals. Here’s a summary of what the AI said with these 2 signals in a row.

The market shows signs of a potential trend change, shifting from a strong downtrend to a weak upward trend. Multiple key technical signals are aligning:

1. Trend Structure: Early signs of upward momentum are emerging, though still fragile. Strong reversal signals appear from the previous downtrend, with the new high/low indicator turning up – a historically reliable reversal signal.
2. Momentum Signals: The 21-day stochastic has crossed above the key 20% threshold while the price phase indicator is rising. Both signals are gaining particular strength as they emerge from deeply oversold conditions.
3. Price and Volume Alignment: The closing price has moved above the 21-day EMA while volume accumulation is increasing. This suggests smart money is actively accumulating positions during market weakness, a significant bullish indicator.
4. Market Breadth Triple Confirmation: The advance/decline line, volume oscillator, and A/D oscillator have all turned positive, supported by strong volume accumulation. This broad market participation significantly increases the probability of a sustained reversal.

The convergence of these signals during a transition from a downtrend to a weak uptrend suggests a significant trading opportunity could be developing, though the trend’s current weakness means traders should remain vigilant with position sizing.

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Steve Hill from AiQ Systems presented on the use of Fibonacci tools in trading, explaining their effectiveness in identifying support and resistance levels, particularly in trending markets. He discussed the use of Fibonacci retracements, arcs, fans, and time zones, emphasizing their importance in analyzing market trends and making informed investment decisions. Steve also demonstrated how to use these tools on various stocks, including Johnson & Johnson, Hasbro, Home Depot, and a hotel company, highlighting their usefulness in predicting future price movements.