Trading is a statistical business, traders focus on risk management using systems that have been shown to provide an edge. Trading stock tips, news stories, stocks you are familiar with, and similar approaches can lead to mixed results. No one guesses right all the time. Trading is not about guessing or hoping. Traders need tools that are well understood, like an old friend. You usually know how a friend will react in a given situation, sometimes you are surprised but more often than not you have a good idea of their reaction to things. Trading needs to be the same way. No system reacts as expected all the time, if they did everyone would be driving a BMW to their Yacht. A traders job is to find a system that has an edge, learn how it behaves in different market conditions, and then be positioned to profit if the system does the normal thing.
Trading involves more than just picking a stock and entering a position. You don’t have a profit until you are back in cash. Exit strategies and money management techniques are important aspects of trading. Traders need to vary their position sizes and the number of trading positions used based on the current market conditions. In order to do this traders need to know how their trading systems perform in different market conditions. We cannot control what the market is doing, but we can react to it. During conditions that result in lower success rates for a trading system we need to either switch to a different trading system, or reduce positions sizes, as a way of reducing risks.
I went to a high school football game to watch my oldest daughter play in the band. After awhile I walked over to the refreshment stand to get something to drink. As I was walking toward the stand the crowd noise greatly increased, and people were cheering loudly. I knew from the increased noise level that something important had happened so I turned around and saw the end of a long yardage play. Stock volume is a similar indicator, when stocks are moving on volume there is a lot of interest in the play and traders should turn and pay attention.
If Sears has been selling a hammer for thirty dollars and they suddenly raise the price to forty dollars they would expect to sell fewer of them. Sears would see the volume drop off, and conclude that the price may not be sustainable. The same idea applies to stocks, when the price moves up on declining volume the price change may not be sustainable.
Steve Palmquist a full time trader who invests his own money in the market every day. He has shared trading techniques and systems at seminars across the country; presented at the Traders Expo, and published articles in Stocks & Commodities, Traders-Journal, The Opening Bell, and Working Money. Steve is the author of, “Money-Making Candlestick Patterns, Backtested for Proven Results’, in which he shares backtesting research on popular candlestick patterns and shows what actually works, and what does not. Steve is the publisher of the, ‘Timely Trades Letter’ in which he shares his market analysis and specific trading setups for stocks and ETFs. To receive a sample of the ‘Timely Trades Letter’ send an email tosample@daisydogger.com. Steve’s website: www.daisydogger.comprovides additional trading information and market adaptive trading techniques. Steve teaches a weekly web seminar on specific trading techniques and market analysis through Power Trader Tools.

Bearing some resemblance to mutual funds, the ETF is actually in a class of its own. Rather than purchasing an individual stock, an ETF is a manner of automatic diversification, without the capital demands of individual stock purchase, yet all the while allowing the benefits of direct stock appreciation.

Mutual funds will have a daily valuation that will apply to all transactions on that day, as the unit price is altered to reflect the funds asset value; the advantage to the short term trader is minimized. ETF’s on the other hand are quite able to be traded intra-day, as the price will dynamically respond to the ordinary markets forces of demand and supply, and are able to trade at a discount or a premium to the underlying instrument they are hinged upon. This of course will take into account numerous fundamental variables, not the least of which is the cash and carry premium that is inherent in synthetics to reflect the absence of physically carrying the underlying instrument or commodity. Importantly, short selling is possible with ETF’s, and so trading on margin also adds to the inherent leverage that this type of synthetic instrument allows.

ETFs are available on numerous underlying instruments including indices, industry sectors, regional sectors, commodities, and in fact a plethora of niche markets that marvelously, even extend to fixed interest income streams. In a bid to maximize every possible return, this type of flexibility allows investors to tailor their portfolios to unprecedented accuracy. With ETF’s, any composition is quickly able to be implemented and adjusted when the need arises.

Often a mutual fund will charge fees up to 3% p.a. while an ETF will rarely exceed 1%. Still given a liquid ETF market exists, the bid ask spread will contribute to an investors expense and will detract from any return accruing. This is the one aspect of ETF trading that may dissuade smaller investors from redirecting investments from similar leveraged instruments such as mutual funds. Larger institutional traders on the other hand can cover their exposures easily in large volumes, which are far easier to execute than in individual markets.

There also exists a certain tax advantage concomitant to ETF’s. Capital gain will be realized and tax will accrue upon the conversion of equity through an exit trade. Additionally, some ETF’s upon equity will allow an exchange for physical stock, and similarly enabling the deferral of tax. Mutual funds however, must purchase and redeem shares of stocks as they are created within the fund, and then distribute the capital gain each quarter. This declaration is subject to an immediate tax liability, a nuance that an ETF does not lend itself to.

Three Black Crows consists of three consecutive long black real bodies occurring in an uptrend, each one uccessively lower than the candle prior. The first black candle typically opens above the prior day’s close. The two candles that follow are characterized by an open within the prior day’s real body and a close at or near the prior day’s low, creating a downward stairstep pattern. The Three Black Crows also translate into one very long black candle, sending a message of trend reversal.

Friday February 12, 2010 saw this classic bearish pattern on SBB, ProShares Short Small Cap 6000

When the market is falling and the charts look terrible, your emotions want you to sell. Conversely, when the market is rallying and the news is good, your emotions want you to buy. Unfortunately, this can lead to selling at the low or buying at the high. One way of controlling your emotions is to set some market timing rules based on AIQ’s US score, a unique indicator that can be found on the Market Log report.While the Expert Ratings on an individual stock can be suspect, the Expert Ratings taken from a large database (in this case the SP500) of stocks are effective in classifying the health of the market.

That is, when a lot of stocks are giving AIQ Expert Rating buy signals, a market rally may be near. Conversely, when a large number of stocks are giving AIQ sell signals, a market decline may be approaching.

Expert Ratings are either “confirmed” or “unconfirmed.” A confirmed buy signal occurs when a stock has a recent Expert Rating up signal of 95 or greater along with an increasing Phase indicator. The opposite is true for confirmed sell signals. Unconfirmed signals, however, occur when there is an Expert Rating of 95 or greater but the Phase indicator fails to move in the direction of the signal. It is the unconfirmed signals that you should be interested in.

AIQ’s Market Log report lists the percentage of stocks giving unconfirmed signals (US). The US score is found near the top of the report. The percentage of stocks giving unconfirmed AIQ buy signals appears to the left of the hyphen and the percentage of stocks giving unconfirmed AIQ sell signals appears on the right side of the hyphen. As of Friday February 5th, 2010, of the stocks giving unconfirmed signals, 93% are on the buy side and 7% are on the sell side.

To open the Market Log report, go to Reports and double-click Summary Reports and then Market Log. It is important to keep in mind that AIQ Expert Ratings fire against the trend. As the market declines, the percentage of stocks giving unconfirmed AIQ buy signals increases. As the market rallies, few stocks give buy signals and more stocks register sell signals. The US score serves as an overbought/oversold indicator for the market. That is, when the US score shows 85% or more on the buy side, then that implies the market has recently experienced a sharp decline, is oversold, and due for a rally. Conversely, when the US score shows 85% or more on the sell side, then the market has rallied and is  overbought.

Some AIQ users immediately enter the market when the US score moves to 85% or more on the buy side. They exit anytime the US score is 85% or more on the sell side. I don’t recommend this approach because the market can stay overbought or oversold for quite some time. Instead, it may be best to wait for a trend-following indicator such as the Directional Movement Index to confirm the new trend direction.

Rather than using the US score as a strict market timing model, use it as a simple tool to keep your emotions in check. It helps you avoid buying high or selling low. Here is the rule: Don’t turn bearish on the market and sell positions when the US score shows 85% or more buy signals. Similarly, never turn bullish or add positions when the US score shows 85% or more sell signals.

The rule sounds simple but your emotions will tell you otherwise. When the US score has a high percentage of buy signals, the market has fallen and news reports are gloomy. That’s when your emotions tell you to bail. You may be selling right at a low, however. You either should have already sold or you should wait until the market rallies enough to where the US score is no longer giving a bullish reading.

When the market rallies it gets easier to buy. News reports are better and you think you may miss a big rally if you don’t immediately buy. Your emotions tell you to buy more but the US score can counteract your emotions. Don’t buy until the market pulls back enough to bring the US score out of bearish territory. Preferably, wait until the US score turns bullish.